Serbia’s French Warplane Deal Discredits Vucic’s Earlier Color Revolution Claim
Andrew Korybko
Andrew Korybko's Newsletter
He wouldn’t have gone through with this $3 billion deal if he really thought that the West was trying to overthrow him like he claimed less than a month ago.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic surprised observers when he announced during a meeting with his French counterpart in Belgrade last week that he agreed to a $3 billion deal to buy 12 Rafale warplanes. The reason why this was so unexpected is that his government had recently accused the West of orchestrating an ultimately failed Color Revolution against him in early August that he claimed Russia had also warned him about right beforehand.
It was explained here at the time why “The Serbian Government Is Inadvertently Responsible For The Latest Color Revolution Intrigue”, which drew attention to the legitimate grievances that some patriotic members of its population have against him. These include taking steps that can be interpreted as de facto recognition of Kosovo’s “independence”, voting against Russia at the UN, and allegedly arming Ukraine. Nevertheless, the West still wants a fully compliant puppet, not someone with semi-autonomy.
The last-mentioned observation accounts for why they still kindle Color Revolution unrest in Serbia, though Vucic’s French warplane deal suggests that he doesn’t take it as seriously as he makes it seem. After all, if he was really concerned about being overthrown through weaponized protests like Slobodan Milosevic before him, then he’d have presumably pulled Serbia out of large-scale military talks with the West like the ones that it was engaged in with France up until now.
That never happened as is known, so the natural conclusion is that he hyped up the latest Color Revolution threats for the politically self-serving reason of discrediting those patriotic members of the population who gathered to peacefully protest against him in early August. To be sure, nefarious elements were indeed part of those protests, hence why Russia reportedly passed along warnings to him. The point, however, is that they weren’t capable of overthrowing him.
His intelligence services would have known this much better than Russia’s, and Vucic might have publicly disclosed their alleged warnings in order to reinforce the false perception that those patriots who participated in the protests are supposedly anti-Russian even though they’re actually Russophiles. If that’s what he was thinking, then it would show how much he fears the patriotic opposition and suggest that he might also even be scared that Russia could one day support them through various means.
To be clear, Russia doesn’t meddle in Serbia, but Vucic might have become paranoid after hobnobbing with the West over the years so it can’t be ruled out that he doesn’t have such suspicions. What can be known with confidence though is that he isn’t worried about the West toppling him even though some hawks still harbor this fantasy as was previously explained. If it was otherwise, then he wouldn’t have let Serbia continue its military-technical talks with France, which culminated in this major deal.
Looking forward, observers shouldn’t take any of his future Color Revolution warnings all that seriously, though that’s not to imply that there isn’t any such threat. It’ll always remain so long as he refuses to sanction Russia and continues behaving semi-autonomously instead of fully complying with their demands. He’s not expected to budge on this matter and the West doesn’t really care all that much since he already does a lot of what they want anyhow so they don’t have an urgent reason to overthrow him.
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Image: © N/A. AWIP: http://www.a-w-i-p.com/index.php/2024/09/02/serbia-s-french-warplane-deal
