Everyone Was Wrong About The Latest Israeli-Lebanese War

Andrew Korybko
Andrew Korybko's Newsletter

Israel’s intelligence superiority and the Resistance Axis’ reluctance to escalate are responsible for why the self-professed Jewish State is indisputably winning the latest war with Lebanon.

The latest Israeli-Lebanese War shattered everyone’s expectations. Hezbollah’s enormous missile stockpile made them all believe that “Mutually Assured Destruction” (MAD) had been achieved with Israel, thus restraining both combatants’ actions in any future conflict, but Israel’s intelligence superiority and the Resistance Axis’ reluctance to escalate ultimately gave the self-professed Jewish State a major edge. The present state of affairs is such that Israel is indisputably winning the latest war with Lebanon.

Its audacious pager attack disrupted Hezbollah’s chain of command and operations, which Israel then exploited to hit their missile stockpiles while the group was reeling from this blow. Their chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, who the IDF claims to have killed on Friday though Hezbollah has yet to confirm this at the time of writing, either still eschewed escalating due to his rational belief in MAD or he was literally unable to after what had happened. In any case, Iran could have escalated instead, but it refused.

It's time to reflect on what everyone got wrong. For starters, nobody had any idea how deeply Israeli intelligence infiltrated Hezbollah. They knew the locations of most missile stockpiles, the whereabouts of the group’s leading figures, and were even able to literally plant disguised bombs on many of them. This couldn’t have been achieved through technical means alone. High-level human intelligence is therefore obviously responsible. These assets crippled Hezbollah from within before the latest war even began.

Second, friends and foes alike convinced themselves that the Resistance Axis would go out with guns blazing if they were ever on the brink of defeat, which didn’t happen. While it’s unclear whether Hezbollah wanted to escalate but was literally unable to or if it never seriously countenanced this due to MAD, there’s no question that Iran deliberately made the choice not to. While some might attribute this to its new “moderate”/“reformist” president, that ignores the Supreme Leader and the IRGC’s roles.

They’re the ones responsible for Iran’s relations with the Resistance Axis, not the elected leader, and they’re not subservient to him either. There’s no credible indication that they wanted to escalate but were stopped by the president. Rather, all evidence suggests that the country’s leadership as a whole decided not to risk MAD with Israel by waging a conventional war against it in defense of Hezbollah, thus suggesting that prior rhetoric to this effect was just a bluff.

Building upon this observation, the third point is that Israel’s bombing of the Iranian Consulate in Damascus earlier this year and the Islamic Republic’s retaliation can be seen in hindsight as a game-changer in terms of their assessments of one another’s military capabilities. Although Iran’s response was restrained, Israel felt confident enough that it and its allies could intercept a larger salvo, thus emboldening it to assassinate Hamas’ political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran over the summer.

Iran chose not to replicate spring’s retaliation, which was interpreted by some as wisely avoiding a potentially uncontrollable escalation spiral that could have led to the US’ direct intervention in the conflict, but it might in retrospect have been due to Iran recently being humbled by Israel’s air defenses. Fourth, this version of events is taboo to discuss in the Alt-Media Community since most top influencers are sympathetic to the Resistance Axis, and they’ll “cancel” anyone who doubts their capabilities or will.

Anyone who dares to do so is smeared as a “Zionist”, “CIA/Mossad agent”, etc., which created an alternative reality that reinforced the misperceptions that are being candidly discussed in this analysis. Every undeniable setback is spun by them as part of a “5D chess master plan”, sometimes even to “feign weakness in order to psyche out Israel”, but that’s now known not to be true. The cold reality is that Israel is a lot stronger than they claimed and the Resistance Axis a lot less prone to escalation too.

And finally, perhaps the most important point is that Israel was willing to risk MAD for ideological reasons stemming from its current leadership’s worldview while the Resistance Axis has always been much more rational, hence why they remained committed to MAD and never crossed Israel’s red lines. Hezbollah might literally be unable to now even if it wanted to, but the Iranian leadership – which includes the Supreme Leader and the IRGC – is still a firm believer in not risking World War III.

There’s no shame in not having known any of this before the latest Israeli-Lebanese War, but those who sincerely aspire to understand International Relations as they objectively exist and not as they wish them to be must soberly reflect on the five points shared in this analysis. Anyone who still refuses to learn from their errors of judgement is either delusional or a propagandist. It’s possible to recognize these tough truths and still support the Resistance Axis despite what the Alt-Media’s gatekeepers may claim.

____________________________________________________________________________________________

Image: © Smoke rises from Israeli airstrikes in Beirut, Lebanon, Sept. 28, 2024. © AP / Hassan Ammar; RT.com
AWIP: http://www.a-w-i-p.com/index.php/2024/09/28/everyone-was-wrong-about-the