The Terrorist Offensive In Aleppo Is Meant To Deliver A Coup De Grace To Syria
Andrew Korybko
Andrew Korybko's Newsletter
Smoke rises from clashes between Syrian rebels and Govern-
ment forces in the Aleppo countryside on Wednesday.
Everything will depend on whether the terrorists are stopped outside of Aleppo; the outcome of any possible battle for that city; and how desperate Assad becomes if he loses control over it and the terrorists advance on Damascus.
The terrorist-designated Hayat Tahrir-al-Sham (HTS), which is the rebranded form of the Al Qaeda-backed Al-Nusra, launched a surprise offensive in Aleppo this week. It’s already made a lot of progress due to the terrorists’ use of drones and other modern warfare tactics. These were reportedly taught to them by Ukraine according to reports in the run-up to the latest hostilities. Other reports included Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) warning about a false-flag chemical weapons attack.
Syrian, Iranian, and Russian forces (including its aerospace ones) are currently trying to push back HTS’ advance. This intense fighting comes immediately after the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire deal, which that Iranian-backed Resistance group agreed to in spite of the late Nasrallah’s pledge not to do so without a ceasefire in Gaza first. It can therefore be interpreted as an Israeli victory despite Iran hailing this agreement and its ideologically aligned influencers spinning it as a Resistance victory.
With the Resistance objectively on the backfoot in the region, it makes sense why their HTS foes decided to go on the offensive at this specific moment, something that they’d clearly planned to do for a while. If the hostilities continue, then another large-scale humanitarian crisis might follow, which could see more internally displaced people in this war-torn country and some of them even fleeing to Europe. Terrorist sleeper cells elsewhere in the country might also awaken and reverse the progress of the past few years.
None of this would be possible without Turkiye’s support since all of HTS’ food, clothes, and arms come from that neighboring country in spite of Ankara formally designating it as a terrorist group. Erdogan’s prioritization of what he believes to be his country’s national interests, whether rightly or wrongly and regardless of morality, explains why he’s exploiting recent events to this end. He sees an opportunity to deliver a coup de grace to Syria for ending its long-running conflict on better terms for Turkiye.
Assad is unlikely to be toppled, but Erdogan wants him to grant broad Bosnian-like autonomy to the Islamist-controlled northwest of the country in which Turkiye continues to exert influence, but the Syrian leader refuses to do so since he remains adamant that his Arab Republic must remain a unitary one. Likewise, he also won’t grant such autonomy to the Kurds in the US-occupied northeast, which is also the country’s most agriculturally and energy-rich region. Readers can learn more about this proposal here.
On that topic, RFK Jr. revealed shortly after the US elections that Trump is considering withdrawing these American troops, which could lead to another Turkish offensive just like the several prior ones that were all carried out under the pretext of stopping Kurdish separatism. Unless pro-Turkish Kurds replace the political influence of Ankara-designated Kurdish terrorists there like they earlier did in Iraq, then Ankara will consider any autonomous project to be a stepping stone to more separatism inside of Turkiye itself.
With this in mind, one of Turkiye’s strategic objectives in HTS’ offensive is to coerce Damascus into granting autonomy to the Islamists under its influence in the northwest while agreeing to do the same in the northeast but only after replacing the current ruling Kurdish clique with pro-Turkish ones. Turkiye could carry out joint operations with Syria in the northeast to defeat the separatists if American troops are withdrawn and Damascus first agrees to grant autonomy to the aforesaid Islamists.
The other strategic objective that Turkiye is pursuing right now is to get on Trump’s good side by doing the US the strategic favor of delivering a coup de grace to Syria that finally ends this long-running conflict and thus frees him up to fully refocus on his planned “Pivot (back) to Asia”. In exchange, Trump might agree not to expand the sanctions regime that he’s inheriting to include Turkiye’s trade with Russia, which involves energy, agriculture, and also the transshipment of Western-sanctioned tech.
Building upon this imperative, Turkiye also knows that the unexpected exacerbation of the hitherto largely frozen Syrian Conflict at precisely the moment when the NATO-Russian proxy war in Ukraine is also intensifying following the latest ATACMS-Oreshnik escalations works against Russia’s interests. Accordingly, by opening up a “second front”, Turkiye might hope to pressure Russia into either coercing Syria into the previously described concessions and/or also enacting its own concessions in Ukraine.
Either outcome, and especially both, would by default work in advance of the US’ interests and thus possibly ingratiate Erdogan much more with Trump. The Turkish leader might be concerned that the returning American one could take a harder line towards Turkiye if he doesn’t give him some impressive geopolitical gifts before the inauguration due to Director of National Intelligence (DNI) nominee Tulsi Gabbard’s documented dislike of his country. He therefore has an urgent impetus to deliver on this.
Lost amidst the discussion about Syrian, Russian, and Turkish interests in this newly thawed conflict is Israel’s interests. The Alt-Media Community largely believes that Israel wants to overthrow Assad due to its prior backing of terrorist-designated Islamist militants, but its interests nowadays are arguably to have Assad expel Iran and Hezbollah. Its hundreds of bombings against those two there over the years, none of which Russia interfered with despite occasionally condemning them, hasn’t yet led to that.
It's admittedly a far-fetched scenario, but if Syria, Iran, and Russia struggle to fend off Turkish-backed HTS’ latest advance, then it can’t be ruled out that Israel might lend a helping hand to Damascus on the condition that Iran and Hezbollah are immediately expelled. The Russian Aerospace Forces are naturally prioritizing the Ukrainian front over the Syrian one so their limited capabilities in the latter theater might lead to a situation where Damascus becomes desperate enough to seriously consider this possibility.
Even though Erdogan never took any meaningful action in support of Hamas or Hezbollah, limiting himself purely to the realm of demagogic rhetoric, Israel still didn’t appreciate this and thus has an axe to grind with him if the right opportunities and incentives present themselves. Turkish-backed HTS’ offensive represents such an opportunity while the incentive to bomb them could emerge if it advances in Aleppo, Syria and its allies struggle to stop them, and Damascus agrees to the abovementioned deal.
To be absolutely clear, there are no signs that Assad is seriously considering kicking his Iranian and Hezbollah allies out of the country as a quid pro quo for the Israeli Air Force’s (IAF) support against HTS, which would amount to a total betrayal of the Resistance that Syria itself helped found. Nevertheless, his calculations could change if Iran’s ground forces and Russia’s Aerospace ones aren’t able to save Aleppo, in which case he might consider this option out of desperation to stop the terrorists’ advance.
Unlike Russia, which is focused on the special operation, Israel just agreed to a ceasefire in Lebanon and is pretty much done with its Gaza campaign so the IAF could focus on destroying HTS if Assad agrees. Turkiye won’t go to war with Israel in response no matter what Erdogan might then threaten so it’s possible that Turkiye ends up being the one that’s dealt a coup de grace instead of Syria if Israel helps Syria destroy Turkiye’s proxies there and thus foils Erdogan’s grand plans that were explained.
The odds of Syria agreeing to this would increase if Israel leveraged its influence inside the US and especially within Trump 2.0 to ensure sanctions relief in exchange for kicking Iran and Hezbollah out of the country, which could be paired with Emirati-led Arab reconstruction assistance. Once again, the likelihood of this admittedly far-fetched scenario materializing is very low, but it would represent a regional game-changer that would also greatly advance America’s strategic interests too.
Russia’s military presence in Syria might also be unaffected since neither Israel nor the US minds it. In fact, Putin might even appreciate Netanyahu teaching Erdogan a lesson since the Turkish leader’s proxy offensive in Syria risks reversing Russia’s anti-terrorist progress there and thus harming its reputation. Moreover, Trump might also appreciate Netanyahu doing the same to Erdogan, which Tulsi would applaud as well if she’s confirmed as DNI. Erdogan might thus ultimately regret approving this offensive.
It's premature to predict that such a scenario sequence will unfold since it’s still very unlikely that Assad would fulfill the prerequisite of betraying the Resistance like Israel would demand, especially since it’s still possible that Syria and its allies will beat back HTS’ Turkish-backed offensive on Aleppo. Even if there’s another full-fledged Battle of Aleppo, so long as that city doesn’t fall to the terrorists, Assad will probably still rule out such a “deal with the devil” as he sees it.
In the event that he loses Aleppo and his allies can’t help him liberate it again, such as if Russia’s Aerospace Forces are still focused on the special operation while Iran’s might have been irreparably weakened by the latest West Asian Wars, then he might finally consider it. Everything will therefore depend on whether HTS is stopped outside of Aleppo; the outcome of any possible battle for that city; and how desperate Assad becomes if he loses control over it and the terrorists advance on Damascus.
____________________________________________________________________________________________
Image-1: © Anas Alkharboutli/picture alliance/Getty Images. AWIP: http://www.a-w-i-p.com/index.php/aT5F
