Andrew Korybko
Andrew Korybko's Newsletter

Trump is preparing for negotiations with Putin over Ukraine as well as with Xi over trade and likely also Taiwan, so he’d appear weak in their eyes if he let a middling leader like Petro publicly defy and even insult him without consequence.

Colombian President Gustavo Petro thought that he’d rebalance lopsided relations with his returning US counterpart by abruptly rejecting two previously agreed military flights for repatriating his country’s illegal immigrants but was ultimately taught an unforgettable lesson. Trump reacted with fury by threatening 25% tariffs that would double in a week’s time and sanctioning high-level officials on national security pretexts among other punitive measures, which quickly prompted Petro to capitulate.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt then confirmed her country’s victory in its brief dispute with Colombia, shortly after which Petro rage-tweeted a convoluted rant about imperialism and racism as a parting shot against Trump that was widely met with mockery online, especially from Americans. This short-lived scandal was significant since Trump proved how serious he is about leveraging tariffs and sanctions to coerce Ibero-American countries into accepting the return of their repatriated citizens.

He won the 2016 election in part because of his pledge to build a southern border wall for stopping illegal immigration, but after an estimated 8 million illegals flooded into the country during Biden’s term, he then promised to expel as many as possible if voters returned him to office like they ultimately did. It’ll be difficult to return all of them, however, which is why his administration wants to coerce them into voluntarily leaving on their own by creating extremely onerous conditions for those who remain.

To that end, repatriating some of them to their homelands on military flights – including in handcuffs like what just happened to some illegal immigrants from Brazil – is meant to intimidate them into returning back home on their own terms, ergo the importance of ensuring that these flights aren’t rejected. In parallel with this, the Trump Administration is exploring an agreement to deport asylum seekers to El Salvador, which is now globally known for its zero-tolerance of gang members.

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Andrew Korybko
Andrew Korybko's Newsletter

The future of their strategic partnership is bright, but in order to fully appreciate its prospects, observers must acknowledge its non-military nature instead of continuing to fantasize about a joint war against Israel and/or the US like some are doing.

The Russian and Iranian presidents met in Moscow last Friday to sign an updated strategic partnership pact that can be read in full here and was reviewed here.

The run-up to this development was marked by predictable hype about it being a game-changer, which hasn’t subsided in the days since, but this is an inaccurate description of what they agreed to. The only way in which this might ring true is with regards to gas, not geopolitics, for the reasons that’ll now be explained.

To begin with, Russia and Iran already had close military-technical cooperation before they updated their strategic partnership last week as proven by the rumors of Russia relying on Iranian drones in Ukraine. They also agreed to revive the previously stillborn North-South Transport Corridor (NSTC) shortly after the special operation began and the West imposed unprecedented sanctions against Moscow. Therefore, these parts of their updated strategic partnership aren’t anything new, they just aim to strengthen them.

About that, this agreement is fundamentally different from last summer’s Russian-North Korean one in that there aren’t any mutual defense obligations as clarified in Article 3. They only committed to not aid any aggression against the other, including assistance to the aggressor, and to help settle the subsequent conflict at the UN. That was already the case in their relations so explicitly clarifying it is redundant. Under no circumstances will Russia go to war against Israel and/or the US in support of Iran.

After all, “Russia Dodged A Bullet By Wisely Choosing Not To Ally With The Now-Defeated Resistance Axis” over the past 15 months as Israel single-handedly destroyed that Iranian-led regional network, so it naturally follows that it won’t risk World War III in defense of an even weaker Iran.

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Andrew Korybko
Andrew Korybko's Newsletter

Putin’s Senior Aide Patrushev Made Some Predictions About Trump, China, & Eastern Europe. The outcome of Trump’s continued struggle with the “deep state” will reverberate across the world.

Putin’s senior aide Nikolai Patrushev, who ran the FSB for nearly a decade (1999-2008) before chairing the Security Council for over 15 years till recently (2008-2024), made three predictions about international affairs in his latest interview with Komsomolskaya Pravda.

The first concerns the continued struggle between Trump and the “deep state”, the latter of which can be described as US’ permanent military, intelligence, and diplomatic bureaucracies, some members of whom are known to oppose him.

Patrushev expects Trump to implement domestic and foreign policies that are practically the opposite of Biden’s, which he characterizes as pragmatic and more aligned with the interests of the American people, but he’s unsure whether he’ll ultimately succeed due to internal resistance. The precedent from his first term bodes ill for his second, but the outcome of this latest struggle will reverberate for decades seeing as how the world is undergoing far-reaching systemic changes last seen since 1991.

On that topic, Patrushev assessed that one of Trump’s top foreign policy priorities is to ramp up pressure on China, including by artificially exacerbating bilateral tensions. He then reminded everyone that “For us, China has been and remains a most important partner, with whom we have relations of especially privileged strategic cooperation. These relations are not subject to the situation, they remain regardless of who occupies the Oval Office.” This can be interpreted as signaling that Russia won’t backstab China. In other words, Trump’s declared goal of “un-uniting” those two will fail, thus meaning that no worsening of their relations will occur.

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Andrew Korybko
Andrew Korybko's Newsletter

The exact opposite of what Kagan posited is true: Russia can’t militarily control Ukraine indefinitely; a Russian-American brinksmanship scenario is terrifyingly realistic; and Putin is indeed interested in compromising but only under certain conditions.

Hugely influential neoconservative thinker Robert Kagan recently published a lengthy diatribe at The Atlantic fearmongering about Russia’s total and indefinite control of Ukraine, which he takes for granted if Trump doesn’t redouble aid to Ukraine.

It’s premised on the presumptions that Russia can military control all of Ukraine indefinitely, there’s no realistic Russian-American brinksmanship scenario over that country, and Putin is unwilling to compromise. The following three arguments tear apart his claims:

1. Russia Lacks The Means To Militarily Control Ukraine Indefinitely

Ukraine is a geographically enormous country that would require tremendous military resources for anyone to control indefinitely. On top of that, a large segment of its population now has military experience or at least basic arms training, weapons are now proliferating throughout its society with wild abandon, and the entire western part is known to be ultra-nationalist to the point of fascist. It would accordingly require much greater means than Russia has to militarily control Ukraine indefinitely. Any attempt to do so, however, could expose Russia to an Afghan- and Iraqi-like insurgency that it’s ill-prepared to contain.

Its forces would stand out in the ultra-nationalist western part of the country and therefore make easy targets for unconventional warfare (terrorism). These networks are deeply rooted and have existed for decades, lying dormant during most of the Soviet era but still never having been completely dismantled. Their fighters can also be easily supplied by neighboring NATO nations.

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Andrew Korybko
Andrew Korybko's Newsletter

The possible end of the Ukrainian Conflict sometime later this year and the political agreement that’ll accompany it will play the greatest roles in determining the New Cold War’s strategic dynamics in the coming future.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov gave a year-end interview with TASS where he touched upon the most important developments from the past year that’ll likely shape events in 2025.

From the get-go, he rejected Trump’s reported plans to freeze the conflict, delay Ukraine’s membership in NATO, and deploy Western peacekeepers there and reminded everyone of the terms that Putin declared for ending the special operation. Russia also requires legally binding agreements that address the root of the conflict.

Lavrov expressed skepticism that there’ll be any improvement in bilateral relations under Trump since he’ll have to “swim against the current” as he phrased it in the sense of having to overcome the bipartisan consensus on containing Russia via Ukraine. On that topic, he’s equally skeptical of Zelensky’s recent admission that Ukraine is unable to reconquer its lost territories, pointing to that goal’s continued inclusion in Kiev’s “Victory Plan” as evidence that his words haven’t translated into actions.

Moving along, Lavrov was also asked about the West’s policy of orchestrating Color Revolutions, particularly in Georgia. He responded by condemning the false dilemma that they’ve placed that country into whereby it’s either considered to be with the West or against it. He also reaffirmed that Russia is determined to normalize relations with Georgia to the extent that Tbilisi is ready. Observers should keep an eye on this diplomatic track since it could have far-reaching consequences if any progress is made.

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Andrew Korybko
Andrew Korybko's Newsletter

Russia and the EU will manage the latest phase of their US-instigated divorce without much difficulty, but the US might offer to bring them back together by authorizing its vassals’ import of Russian pipeline gas in exchange for some concessions from the Kremlin in the energy sector and Ukraine.

Pundits are discussing Ukraine’s decision to cut off Russian gas to Europe after Kiev refused to extend its five-year agreement with Moscow that expired on the first of the year, with the vast majority laying blame on the other side and hyping up the negative consequences for their opponent’s interests.

The reality is that this development is much more political than anything else since the EU and Russia already weathered much more serious disruptions throughout 2022.

The Yamal pipeline through Poland was shut down a few months after the special operation began for sanctions-related reasons while Nord Stream 1 was gradually phased out of operation due to maintenance needs worsened by Canada’s delay on returning repaired gas turbines to Russia. That pipeline and the inactive Nord Stream 2 were then blown up in a terrorist attack in September of that year, though one still remains undamaged but has yet to re-enter into operation for political reasons.

The combined effect resulted in the share of Russia’s pipeline gas in EU imports plunging “from over 40% in 2021 to about 8% in 2023” according to the European Council.

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Andrew Korybko
Andrew Korybko's Newsletter

Western democracy is just a process for legitimizing elite interests, and these same elites sometimes repeat the process until they get their desired result.

It was assessed late last month that “The Outcome Of Romania’s Presidential Election Could Spoil The US’ Potential Escalation Plans” if then-frontrunner Calin Georgescu, a populist conservative-nationalist that’s critical of NATO’s proxy war on Russian in Ukraine, had won the second round on 8 December. His first-round victory was annulled by the Constitutional Coup in a move that he condemned as a coup, however, on the pretext that his pre-election support on TikTok might have been due to foreign backing.

Nothing like this has ever happened before. Nobody alleges that the electoral process itself was fraudulent. The only claim is that classified evidence supposedly exists allegedly suggesting that the popularization of Georgescu’s content on TikTok might have been inorganic. When all was said and done, however, more voters still chose him over anyone else. This means that speculative degrees of separation between them and a foreign actor via social media was enough to annual the election.

This is a disturbing precedent that can easily be exploited by the West the next time that a populist conservative-nationalist with “politically incorrect” foreign policy views wins an election. At the time of writing, a redo hasn’t yet been scheduled, but it’s expected after the new pro-Western parliament convenes on 20 December. About that, their elections were held after the first presidential round, but no accusations of foul play followed. This is obviously due to the West receiving its desired result.

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Andrew Korybko
Andrew Korybko's Newsletter

Ilham Aliyev is one of Eurasia’s most visionary leaders and Azerbaijan is playing an increasingly important role in the emerging Multipolar World Order.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev reaffirmed his country’s alliance with Russia in the extended interview that he gave to Rossiya Segodnya chief Dmitry Kiselyov earlier this week that can be read in full here. It’s extremely detailed so the present piece will summarize the insight that he shared for convenience. Aliyev began by praising the Declaration on Allied Interaction between Azerbaijan and Russia that he agreed to with Putin on 22 February 2022 as an historic event in their relations.

He appreciated Putin’s state visit over the summer and noted how their trade is rising, Russian visits to Azerbaijan have been restored to their pre-COVID levels, and there are now twice as many flights as during the Soviet era. Aliyev hopes that there won’t be a hot war between NATO and Russia, which would be apocalyptic, and expressed optimism that Trump will make positive changes to US foreign policy. Azerbaijan can also help facilitate a détente between Russia and the US if both are interested.

Aliyev reminded Kiselyov about how Azerbaijan is independent of East and West, has the unique status of being allied with both Russia and NATO-member Turkiye, and previously hosted meetings between top Russian, US, and NATO military officials, which wasn’t by chance since it’s equally trusted by them. In response to being asked about reports that Azerbaijan will host a Turkish base, he said that such isn’t needed since their 2021 Declaration on Allied Relations already includes a mutual defense clause.

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Andrew Korybko
Andrew Korybko's Newsletter

A view of a scene of an explosion in Moscow, Russia, 17 Dec.
ember 2024. According to a statement by the Investigative
Committee of Russia, Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov and
his assistant were killed in a blast outside of an apartment
building in Moscow. [EPA-EFE/YURI KOCHETKOV]

The SBU’s cowardly assassination of Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov won’t stop his agency’s work.

Reuters cited a source in Ukraine’s SBU on Tuesday to report that they were responsible for assassinating Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, the head of Russia’s Radiological, Chemical, and Biological Defense Forces (RChBZ). RT reminded their audience that he was instrumental in informing the world about the WMD threat posed by Ukraine. This includes its American-backed bioweapons experiments, dirty bomb plans, and the use of chemical weapons against Russian servicemen in the special operation zone.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova posted on Telegram that Kirillov “has been systematically exposing the crimes of the Anglo-Saxons for many years, with facts in hand: NATO provocations with chemical weapons in Syria, Britain's manipulations with prohibited chemical substances and provocations in Salisbury and Amesbury, the deadly activities of American biolabs in Ukraine and much more. He worked fearlessly. He did not hide behind people's backs.”

Her country is correspondingly expected to continue raising maximum global awareness of these issues. They’d somewhat faded out of the media limelight over the past year as attention shifted to the scenario of conventional Western escalations in Ukraine such as the decision to authorize Kiev to use the ATACMS for carrying out strikes deep inside of Russia and the possibility of deploying troops there under the cover of peacekeepers. All the while, however, Ukraine’s WMD threats never fully went away.

A lasting peace is therefore only possible if the solution includes mechanisms for dismantling this clandestine infrastructure and monitoring compliance afterwards. Trump would have to be on board for that to happen, but since some of his surrogates have talked about this issue before, it can’t be ruled out that he’d agree to this proposal if they convince him that the problem veritably exists. He also has an axe to grind with Hunter Biden, some of whose companies have been implicated in these schemes.

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Andrew Korybko
Andrew Korybko's Newsletter

It appears as though the Kremlin signaled to those outlets within its “sphere of influence” to withhold publishing worst-case scenario forecasts for now while their country’s diplomats try to avert an even worse crisis.

Publicly financed Russian media’s reaction to Syria’s regime change is a lot different than most could have expected after they earlier warned that this could lead to an unprecedented terrorist crisis. Those concerns were warranted since Turkish-backed Harat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is designated as a terrorist group and was originally part of Al Qaeda.

Nevertheless, these outlets’ reactions have been surprisingly calm, thus suggesting a desire to play everything by ear for the sake of retaining Russian influence there.

RT published two very thought-provoking op-eds since the Syrian Arab Army’s (SAA) epic collapse and Assad’s cowardly flight from Damascus that are worth reviewing in this context. The first is by Murad Sadygzade, who’s President of the Middle East Studies Center and Visiting Lecturer at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow, and answers the question of “Why did Syria fall so fast and what happens next?” He began by drawing attention to foreign meddling but then dove into domestic details.

This approach is noteworthy since it had hitherto been very rare for publicly financed Russian media to talk about the Assad Government’s many shortcomings, but Sadygzade candidly addressed them:

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