Elena Panina (Елена Панина)
Елена Панина/Telegram

Lieutenant General Yaroslav Moskalik, deputy chief of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, was killed today in a car bombing in Balashikha. This is a serious loss for our country. The GOU is the main body of the General Staff. Its tasks include, in particular, “strategic and operational planning of the use of the Russian Armed Forces, operational management of troops (forces) in peacetime and wartime.”

 ■ The terrorist attack is similar to the assassination of Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, head of the Russian Chemical Defense Forces, in the way it was carried out. But it's not just the method. The enemy is moving up the ladder of destruction of Russia's top military personnel. They killed the head of a branch of troops, now - the deputy head of the General Staff Department....

We should not be naive and think that in this matter some gradual escalation will be maintained. If the enemies had a real opportunity to assassinate the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, they would not hesitate to do so.

Andrew Korybko
Andrew Korybko's Newsletter

From India’s perspective, the Pahalgam terrorist attack has Pakistan’s fingerprints all over it, hence why it’s considering at least one surgical strike across the border.

Terrorists massacred 26 tourists who were relaxing in the Baisaran Valley meadow near Pahalgam in the Indian union territory of Jammu & Kashmir (J&K). They specifically targeted Hindus, checking the victims’ IDs and even asking them to pull down their pants to see whether they were circumcised. The terrorists were from “The Resistance Front”, which is an Indian-designated terrorist group associated with the Pakistani-based Lashkar-e-Taiba, itself designated as a terrorist group by India, Russia, the US, and several others.

One of India’s responses has been to hold the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance, which prompted Pakistan to threaten that any curtailment of water to it will be considered an act of war. Pakistan also suspended the 1972 Simla Agreement that ended the third Indo-Pakistani War. Observers now expect that the 2021 ceasefire will soon be annulled. Surgical strikes by India against Pakistan might soon follow after Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed to “pursue [the terrorists] to the ends of the Earth.”

Amidst the uncertainty over what might come next and whether it could set into motion a possibly uncontrollable escalation that ultimately leads to a nuclear exchange, it’s arguably the case that Pakistani Chief of Army Staff Asim Munir has the most to gain and lose from the latest tensions. Beginning with how he might benefit, the most obvious way is by trying to rally the entire nation behind him, especially in the event of tit-for-tat strikes or worse with India.