Shahrokh Saei
Tehran Times

Israel’s airstrikes against Iran in the early hours of Friday are not just a military provocation — they are a sign of strategic desperation

The strikes, launched amid escalating tensions in the region, reflect Tel Aviv’s struggle to maintain dominance in a West Asia that is rapidly shifting in favor of resistance forces. Iran, having already demonstrated its missile and drone capabilities in past confrontations, is now positioned to deliver a powerful and measured response that could redefine the balance of power.

The initial reports of the attacks came from Tehran, soon followed by a cascade of explosions across multiple provinces. Social media footage shows widespread damage to civilian neighborhoods, underscoring the indiscriminate nature of the aggression. Israel later claimed responsibility, targeting sites in Natanz, Khorramabad, Khondab, and other areas. The Israeli military called the strike Operation ‘Rising Lion’.

This act of unprovoked aggression comes amid increasingly hostile rhetoric from Israeli leaders, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose warmongering policies continue to destabilize the region. While U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio attempted to distance Washington from the strikes, calling them a “unilateral action,” observers across the region believe such a major operation could not have happened without at least tacit U.S. support — especially amid indirect negotiations between Tehran and Washington.

In addition to structural damage, Israel’s attack reportedly killed several Iranian military personnel. Iran has pledged a strong response, making clear that such provocations will not go unanswered.

Andrew Korybko
Andrew Korybko's Newsletter

Israel launched unprecedented strikes on Iranian military and nuclear targets early Friday morning. The situation is fluid: The answers will determine the course of this crisis.

This followed the latest US-Iranian nuclear talks stalling, continued speculation that Iran is secretly building nukes, and growing Israeli anxiety with the situation. From the looks of it, Israel decapitated the Iranian Armed Forces and the IRGC, yet Iran still vowed to retaliate. The situation is fluid, but as of Friday morning Moscow time, there are five questions whose answers will determine the course of this crisis:

1. To What Extent Did The US Assist Israel?

Trump publicly distanced himself from Israel’s rapid lead-up to these unprecedented strikes, which followed his reported rift with Bibi, but Iranian policymakers have long believed that the US and Israel are iron-clad allies that always work together. Their assessment of the extent to which the US assisted Israel in these strikes will therefore determine the scope and scale of their retaliation. If they conclude that the US played a role, then American military assets in the region and elsewhere might be targeted.

Andrew Korybko
Andrew Korybko's Newsletter

Considering that the realistic range of Russia’s retaliatory options is now limited, Bibi likely calculated that the harm to bilateral ties will be manageable, ergo why Israel wouldn’t have much to lose by finally going through with this.

Israeli Ambassador to Ukraine Mikhail Brodksy said that Israel transferred US-made Patriot air defense missiles to Ukraine but was contradicted by his Foreign Ministry. They were unconvincing though so ties with Russia might be harmed after its UN envoy warned of “certain political consequences” last summer if this happened.

The region has changed since then after Hezbollah chief Nasrallah was killed, Assad fled Syria, and Iran resumed nuclear talks with the US, however, so such consequences might be limited.

After all, it’s no longer realistic to countenance the scenario of Russia arming Hezbollah, finally allowing Syria to use its S-300s to defend itself from attacking Israeli jets, or providing other forms of indirect support to the Resistance in its regional proxy war with Israel that’s now practically lost.