Trump Piles Pressure On India

Andrew Korybko
Andrew Korybko's Newsletter

The US decided that India’s rise as a Great Power must be derailed and it’ll pursue this by all possible means.

Trump finally went through with February’s threat to rescind his first term’s sanctions waiver for Iran’s Chabahar Port that was promulgated to help India aid Afghanistan’s reconstruction. That facility is partially run by India, which relies on it as the North-South Transport Corridor’s point of entry for connecting with the Central Asian Republics (CARs) and Russia. The US was hitherto pleased with India’s thrust into the CARs, however, since it was considered a gentle means of balancing Chinese influence.

Those calculations have since changed as a result of Trump’s fury at Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s refusal to emulate the EU’s lopsided trade deal with the US by removing all or at least most tariffs on American imports. Revoking this waiver is meant to put India in a strategic dilemma. It can either defy the US’ anti-Iranian sanctions at the cost of secondary sanctions on top of the 50% tariffs he already imposed or comply with them at the expense of ceding influence in the CARs to China.


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