The West Wants Belarus To Replace Supposed Russian Vassalage With Actual Polish Vassalage
Andrew Korybko
Andrew Korybko's Newsletter
The West already turned Ukraine, Armenia, and Moldova into anti-Russian states while stirring trouble in its ties with Azerbaijan and eagerly eyeing Central Asian leader Kazakhstan so the loss of Belarus would practically complete Russia’s strategic encirclement.
The Guardian published a piece about the aims of the West’s incipient US-led rapprochement with Lukashenko, which amounts to an attempt to tempt him into rebalancing Belarus’ ties with Russia through closer cooperation with the West.
It was assessed here over the summer that he’s unlikely to split with Putin, especially not after the West tried to coup him half a decade ago and Russia since gave Belarus tactical nukes, which Lukashenko confirmed in early August’s interview with Time Magazine.
Nevertheless, while his intentions shouldn’t be doubted after he proved his loyalty to Russia throughout the course of the special operation and the associated pressure that the West placed upon Belarus, this doesn’t mean that the West still won’t try to mislead him into drifting closer towards its camp. To be sure, the “EU Defense Line” that’s being built along the bloc’s border with Belarus (and Russia) resembles a “new Berlin Wall” as his Foreign Minister described it, which could impede cooperation.
At the same time, however, the US could leverage the sway that it wields over Poland to offer Belarus security guarantees against the future aggression that Lukashenko fears from it.



























