The Game of Thrones begins in the Republic of Srpska
Stephen Karganovic
Strategic Culture Foundation

As a result of a series of corrupt manoeuvres, Dodik has been outplayed and effectively driven from office, Stephen Karganovic writes.
The political crisis that has unsettled the Republic of Srpska, the Serb entity in Bosnia and Herzegovina that was formed under the terms of the Dayton Peace Agreement in 1995, continues unabated. The direction it is taking bodes ill for the Serbs who live there and constitutes another diplomatic setback for Russia, which may lose a small but staunch ally in the Balkans.
It appears that for the Republic of Srpska the latest political events mark the end of an era. That is certainly true for Milorad Dodik, who has served as the entity’s Prime Minister and President for the last twenty years. As a result of a series of corrupt manoeuvres, Dodik has been outplayed and effectively driven from office. As in the iconic television series, the game of thrones has now begun not only for his successor to be selected but, as importantly, to determine what policies and alliances the Serb entity will pursue in the future.
For a proper understanding of the current situation, it should be recalled that the Dayton Agreement, signed thirty years ago, was the cornerstone not just of the peace that followed three years of bitter intra-communal warfare in Bosnia, but also a constitutional arrangement for a peaceful future within a loose Bosnian confederation. At least initially that suited all parties. However, the hope, at least on the Serbian side, that the terms of such a tolerable arrangement would be permanently respected was soon dashed.
At the heart of the Dayton accords was the commitment by all parties, domestic and international, that Bosnia and Herzegovina, consisting of two autonomous ethnic entities, would be a decentralised state in which each of the three major groups, Serbs, Croats, and Muslims, would be largely free to manage its own affairs. A UN Security Council approved High Representative was empowered, in case of a deadlock, to interpret the peace accords in order to facilitate their implementation. Having renounced a military victory, that was the minimum that the Serbs could accept and the only condition upon which they would agree to remain politically within Bosnia instead of going their own way. Western powers involved in brokering the Dayton peace deal, as usual posing as the “international community,” ostensibly also manifested their assent to the Dayton principles of conflict resolution.






















