Five Takeaways From Ukraine’s Encirclement
Andrew Korybko
Andrew Korybko's Newsletter
Putin is once again extending an olive branch to Zelensky and Trump in his latest goodwill gesture because he truly doesn’t want the conflict to drag on nor to expand Russia’s territorial claims as would likely then happen.
Putin announced that more than ten thousand Ukrainian troops were encircled in Kupyansk and Krasnoarmeisk (Pokrovsk), with his Ministry of Defense soon adding Dimitrov (Mirnograd) near the latter to the list. The Russian leader also proposed halting the fighting so that foreign journalists, including Ukrainian ones, can travel to the front to report on this. Putin suggested a mass surrender just like early 2022’s Azovstal standoff, but Zelensky seems uninterested, at least for now. Here’s what it all means:
1. Russia Continues To Gain Ground Despite Billions In Western Aid For Ukraine | The Economist recently published a piece lobbying for Europe to fund Ukraine over the next four years, which they claim will cost taxpayers at least $390 billion. Their article also reported that $100-110 billion was spent this year, “the highest sum yet”, for a total of $360 billion since 2022 (likely an underestimate). Quite clearly, Western aid hasn’t succeeded in pushing Russia back, only in decelerating its gains. Ukraine’s encirclement therefore shows that no amount of money will inflict a strategic defeat for Russia.
2. The Gravy Train Might End If Ukraine Acknowledges This Encirclement | Building upon the above, Zelensky and Commander-in-Chief Alexander Syrsky have denied these encirclements, most likely because they fear that the aforesaid gravy train might end or at least slow down if they order their forces to surrender. After all, the loss of thousands of troops in three encirclements over 3.5 years into the conflict is no small matter, which might make some Western officials reconsider funding Ukraine since the victory that they were promised is no longer in sight.


















