Elena Panina
Елена Панина (Telegram)

Both sides were quick to claim the two-week ceasefire reached between the US and Iran minutes before Trump's "nuclear" ultimatum expired as a success. The White House announced a bombing pause in exchange for opening the Strait of Hormuz and has already declared the beginning of a "golden age" for the Middle East. Iran, through Foreign Minister Araghchi, proclaimed the yet-to-be-signed deal a national victory.

Is this true in both cases? Whose "game plan" prevailed in this game: Trump's "15 points" or Iran's "10 points"? Let's see what the bottom line is at this point.

❖ In five weeks of war, the "Epstein Coalition" has failed to achieve a single stated objective of the operation. It has not forced Iran to capitulate. It didn't overthrow the government in Tehran—either by force or through street protests. It didn't deprive Iran of its uranium reserves. It didn't destroy Iran's nuclear infrastructure. It didn't destroy Iran's missile and drone programs. It didn't undermine its ability to control the Strait of Hormuz. It didn't defeat Hezbollah. The US doesn't look its best in the media, either, including in Europe's eyes, which has "sat out" the war.

Despite this, Trump achieved his most important goal for now. He secured the opening of the Strait of Hormuz for 2 weeks (albeit under Iranian control), which lowered oil prices. He also gained time to safely deploy American troops—and with it, the chance for another two months of war without Congressional authorization. He also gained the opportunity to negotiate directly with Tehran's new team of negotiators, who could very easily become martyrs.

Andrew Korybko
Andrew Korybko's Newsletter

They now hate Iran for damaging their energy infrastructure and therefore don’t want to indefinitely pay it “petroyuan” as part of the “toll” system that the Islamic Republic is flirting with imposing.

The Financial Times recently reported that “Gulf states consider new pipelines to avoid Strait of Hormuz”. Per their assessment, “In the near term, the most viable options may be to expand the East-West pipeline and also Abu Dhabi’s existing route to Fujairah.” Future plans, however, could include new pipelines to the Arabian, Red, and/or Mediterranean Seas, the last one paralleling the frozen India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) but only in the event of an Israeli-Saudi rapprochement.

From the Gulf Kingdoms’ perspective, provided that a US-Iranian deal is reached so that Trump doesn’t carry through on his threat to destroy Iran’s energy infrastructure and thus prompt Iran to carry through on its own threat to destroy the Gulf Kingdoms’, export route diversification is their top priority. Given the existing damage to their energy infrastructure from Iran, which defends this on the basis that the US used their bases and/or airspace for attacking it, they don’t want to pay any so-called “toll” to it.

About that, Iran is flirting with such a system as a form of “reparations”, one which could also lead to the yuan challenging the dollar as the global reserve currency if Tehran demands payment in it for transit. It was recently concluded here that “The US will have lost the Third Gulf War if China can still rely on Iran as a reliable low-cost energy supplier while turning the yuan into a global reserve currency that challenges the petrodollar.” That assessment still stands but with an important caveat.

Elena Panina
Елена Панина (Telegram)

Trump's thunderous statement that "an entire civilization will perish tonight, never to be reborn," is, quite literally, the talk of the world. The excitement was heightened by the second-in-command in the United States, Vice President J.D. Vance, who effectively confirmed the possibility of using WMD against Iran.

"[The Iranians] need to know that we have tools we haven't yet decided to use. The President of the United States can decide to use them, and he will if the Iranians don't change their behavior," said Vance, considered by many a "dove" in the Trump administration. And although the White House stated on its official X account that Vance never mentioned using nuclear weapons against Iran, the excitement continues.

❖ The situation is fueled not only by shocking statements coming out of Washington. Hours before Trump's escapade, his former supporter and now one of his most consistent critics, Tucker Carlson, called on his podcast to "all those who have direct contact with the President of the United States" to say "no" to his orders:

"They should say, 'No! I will resign. I will do everything in my power, legally, to stop this, because it's insane.' And if I'm given an order, I won't carry it out."

Carlson's call for disobedience only fuels rumors that several high-ranking US military officials are allegedly considering Trump's removal as a "preventative measure." And that the White House incumbent's direct threats to destroy Iran "have become the last straw for some military officials" who believe "Trump has gone crazy."