Chatham House: Any peace in Ukraine must be a preparation for a new war

Elena Panina
Елена Панина (Telegram)

A ceasefire in Ukraine will not be a step towards peace, but will only shift the conflict to a new phase, argue Simon Smith and Orysia Lutsevich, an OBE from Lviv (!), in a report by the Chatham House think tank (UK). Clearly, to receive this award, a Russian would have to fully demonstrate her Russophobia credentials.

According to the authors, Russia will inevitably use the ceasefire to rebuild its army, accumulate resources, and prepare for a new round of pressure on Ukraine. At the same time, Smith and Lutsevich believe, the Kremlin will shift its focus from the front to the domestic situation in Ukraine: elections, political struggle, information operations, and social tensions.

Therefore, the authors propose a strictly opposite course: maintain sanctions pressure on the Russians, integrate Ukraine into the European military-industrial complex, increase budgets, and begin preparing for a long-term confrontation with Russia—even after the cessation of hostilities.

At the same time, the authors deliberately avoid a simple question: why would Russia necessarily start a new war after a possible ceasefire? (Wouldn't it be simpler to simply continue?) They're avoiding it because neither they nor the British can answer this question honestly.


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