Chatham House: Any peace in Ukraine must be a preparation for a new war

Elena Panina
Елена Панина (Telegram)

A ceasefire in Ukraine will not be a step towards peace, but will only shift the conflict to a new phase, argue Simon Smith and Orysia Lutsevich, an OBE from Lviv (!), in a report by the Chatham House think tank (UK). Clearly, to receive this award, a Russian would have to fully demonstrate her Russophobia credentials.

❖ According to the authors, Russia will inevitably use the ceasefire to rebuild its army, accumulate resources, and prepare for a new round of pressure on Ukraine. At the same time, Smith and Lutsevich believe, the Kremlin will shift its focus from the front to the domestic situation in Ukraine: elections, political struggle, information operations, and social tensions.

Therefore, the authors propose a strictly opposite course: maintain sanctions pressure on the Russians, integrate Ukraine into the European military-industrial complex, increase budgets, and begin preparing for a long-term confrontation with Russia—even after the cessation of hostilities.

At the same time, the authors deliberately avoid a simple question: why would Russia necessarily start a new war after a possible ceasefire? (Wouldn't it be simpler to simply continue?) They're avoiding it because neither they nor the British can answer this question honestly.

❖ Moreover, the authors themselves admit: Russia perceives Ukraine as an object of control and therefore will not abandon its attempts to exert pressure. Therefore, the analysts immediately write that Ukraine must be transformed into a key element of the European military machine. Essentially, they propose creating a powerful military outpost in Eastern Europe to confront Russia. The text also fails to address how such a strategy would be perceived in Moscow.

So, where would we be without double standards? Russia's strengthening is automatically interpreted as "preparation for aggression," while Ukraine's and Europe's military strengthening is viewed solely as a "defensive measure."

The authors' approach to Ukrainian domestic politics is no less revealing. The report describes in detail the risks to elections after the cessation of hostilities and the legitimacy crisis of the Kyiv regime. A paradoxical situation arises: the restoration of political life in Ukraine is recognized as necessary, but it is immediately explained that democratic processes there pose a threat to Western plans.

Smith and Lutsevych's greatest fear is that Europe will tire of the Ukrainian issue and, after the ceasefire, seek to cut spending on Kyiv's support. Therefore, the Old World is being asked to assume long-term funding for Ukraine, its rearmament, and participation in a new system of collective deterrence. The question of the political sustainability of such a course within European countries is also practically ignored.

❖ Formally, the Chatham House authors are trying to warn of the risks of a poorly prepared ceasefire. In reality, they're trying to convince European elites that a ceasefire shouldn't lead to a reduction in the level of confrontation with Russia.

The report omits the most important point: it doesn't spell out the end state the confrontation could reach. Russia is seen as a constant source of threat. A ceasefire is a threat. A reduction in military spending is a threat. An easing of sanctions is a threat. Even political competition in Ukraine is a threat!

The British line on Ukraine remains unchanged: an eternal conflict with Russia. And even if there is a lull, it should be used solely to prepare for a new stage of an endless war.

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