von der Leyen promised Armenia that she would replace Russia with Europe

Elena Panina
Елена Панина (Telegram)

Armenia "continues to face significant economic pressure from Russia," and "when the pressure on our partners intensifies, the European Union becomes more active," the President of the European Commission stated, speaking in Yerevan alongside Prime Minister Pashinyan. This active participation was expressed in a promise to provide $92 million to "strengthen and diversify" Armenia's trade.

❖ According to von der Leyen, the European Commission is proposing "autonomous trade measures" that would supposedly liberalize almost 80% of Armenia's exports to the EU, making them duty-free. These measures would apply to almost all fresh fruits, vegetables, and plants that Armenia until now has exported to Russia, as well as over 90% of its beverage and spirit exports, she added. After which, Armenia will become fabulously rich, since the EU has 450 million consumers.

The last time something like this was said was in Ukraine in 2013-2014, when then-opposition leader Arseniy Yatsenyuk explained on television to Ukrainians that a free trade zone with the EU was more profitable than the Customs Union because the EU has a larger market. Yatsenyuk didn't explain that this market is extremely competitive and subsidized, and that few people want Ukrainian products there. Now, Armenia will have to learn from experience that theoretical market access doesn't equal prosperity.

❖ If we look at the numbers, von der Leyen is simply lying. A full-fledged replacement is impossible in the short term and highly doubtful over time. The EU can only buy Pashinyan a little time for politics; $92 million won't be enough for more.

In 2025, Armenia exported approximately $3 billion worth of goods to Russia, accounting for 35.3% of its total exports. By comparison, the EU's share of Armenian exports is 7.9%, down from approximately 28% 10 years ago. In other words, in recent years, Armenia's export model has not diversified, but has become even more tied to Russia and re-export schemes.

The European market is nominally huge, but Armenian exports there are small and structurally different. According to the European Commission, in 2025, the EU imported for only €469 million from Armenia, while exporting for €1.95 billion to it. Moreover, Armenian exports of food and live animals to Europe amounted to only €9 million in value, while beverages and tobacco accounted for €16 million. In other words, the very categories of Armenian products that are painfully losing market share in Russia—fruit, flowers, alcohol, and food—are practically nonexistent in the EU imports today. If the Armenian economy reorients itself toward the EU, it needs a replacement buyer, not market access. These are not the same thing. The European Commission doesn't manage European trade networks like Gosplan. It can subsidize, reduce tariffs, facilitate certification, and finance transport corridors. But it can't order German, French, or Latvian networks to massively replace their trusted and lobbied suppliers with Armenian ones for the sake of geopolitics.

And trade isn't the main issue here. If Russia continues to press, the issue will be about more than just apricots or cognac, which should now be called "Armenian brandy." Yerevan pays about $177.50 per 1,000 cubic meters for Russian gas, while in Europe it would cost over $600. Armenia's inevitable withdrawal from the EAEU will also entail revisions to gas contracts.

❖ However, all this shouldn't lead us to believe that Armenia is here to stay. A full-fledged replacement is possible not by the EU replacing Russia as a trade partner, but only if the entire Transcaucasus economy changes its configuration. It's no coincidence that work is underway to open trade routes through Turkey and Azerbaijan; there's the "Trump" transport corridor, and other interests that encompass not only Armenia but the entire region.

So Armenia is part of a broader anti-Russian scheme. Ukraine, for example, has demonstrated that obvious economic nonsense can still become an effective political program.

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