Kazakhstan On An Irreversible Collision Course With Russia?
Andrew Korybko
Andrew Korybko's Newsletter
The production of NATO-standard shells hints that Kazakhstan plans to follow in Azerbaijan’s footsteps by having its armed forces conform with the bloc’s standards ahead of what its leadership might have been duped by the West to believe will be an inevitable crisis with Russia after the Ukrainian Conflict ends.
Background Briefing | Sputnik reported in early December that Kazakhstan will build four factories that’ll produce Russian- and NATO-standard shells, which prompted First Deputy Chairman of the Duma Defense Committee Alexei Zhuravlev to harshly condemn this development. In his words,
He added that “now they’re switching to NATO ammunition standards, clearly intending to abandon Russian weapons in the future, replacing them with Western ones. Astana may not have been the largest buyer of Russian military-industrial complex equipment, but the move itself is certainly unfriendly and must be responded to accordingly. We all know what such cooperation with NATO has meant for Kiev.” This is the latest manifestation of Kazakhstan’s pro-Western pivot that accelerated in recent months:
● 2 July 2025: “Why’d Erdogan Decide To Expand Turkiye’s Sphere Of Influence Eastwards?”
● 9 August 2025: “The TRIPP Corridor Threatens To Undermine Russia’s Broader Regional Position”
● 2 November 2025: “The West Is Posing New Challenges To Russia Along Its Entire Southern Periphery”
● 12 November 2025: “A US Think Tank Considers Armenia & Kazakhstan To Be Key Players For Containing Russia”
● 13 November 2025: “The US’ Central Asian Minerals Deals Could Put More Pressure On Russia & Afghanistan”
● 23 November 2025: “Why’d Kazakhstan Join The Abraham Accords When It Already Recognizes Israel?”
● 2 December 2025: “The ‘Community Of Central Asia’ Could Reduce Russia’s Regional Influence”
● 19 December 2025: “Turkish Curriculum’s Renaming Of Central Asia To Turkistan Is Turkiye’s Latest Soft Power Flex”




























