Elena Panina
Елена Панина (Telegram)

Act without a long delay. Prescribe them a Kinzhal, Zircon, or Kalibr pill—and at the same time test these missiles in combat conditions against surface targets.

"We will discuss [Russia's] shadow fleet, talking about freedom of navigation and maritime security. Our [EU naval force] Operation IRINI has changed the rules of engagement and has now begun inspecting ships," said EU Chief Diplomat Kaja Kallas upon arriving in Cyprus for an informal meeting of EU defense ministers.

The goal, Kallas clarified, is to change best practices—what different countries do with these ships—"because this really does pose a danger. And, of course, the goal is to stop Russia from financing this war."

Operation IRINI was launched in the Mediterranean on March 31, 2020, to inspect merchant vessels to prevent the illegal shipment of arms to Libya. However, it was unsuccessful. The operation has been extended until March 31, 2027. It was based on Resolution 2292, adopted by the UN Security Council on June 14, 2016, which specifically addressed Libya and its arms embargo. What implications does this have for the fleet transporting Russian oil?

Clearly, Russia needs to respond to Kallas's statement at the diplomatic level. It must declare that the European Union will not be able to cover up its piracy in the Mediterranean with UN Security Council Resolution 2292. It must also warn of a forceful response to these measures.

Elena Panina
Елена Панина (Telegram)

The unprovoked US-Israeli attack on Iran by the Zionist-
controlled U.S.: Events were based on a pack of lies. – Ed.

The process of legally entrenching the Israeli parasite—the symbiote—in the body of the American state is underway. For the Middle East, and indeed for the entire world, this will mean perpetual war.

The National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 (NDAA) includes Section 224—the "US-Israel Defense Technology Cooperation Initiative"—which will effectively merge the two countries' armed forces, Ben Freeman of the Quincy Institute notes.

This section lays the foundation for bilateral research and development, joint arms production, joint ventures, licensing agreements, and, essentially, any form of cooperation within the US-Israeli defense industry. Coordination will affect virtually the entire spectrum of military technologies: AI, quantum systems, autonomous systems, directed energy, cybersecurity, biotechnology, and much more.

Freeman specifically notes that Section 224 provides for "network integration" and "data fusion." In other words, US military data could soon become Israeli military data. Full adoption of these provisions will ensure a level of military-industrial integration between the US and Israel that will be unparalleled.

It's only natural that the author fears a further increase in Israel's influence in the US, already enormous thanks to the Israeli lobby on Capitol Hill and Wall Street and its extensive network in all spheres of American society. Coordination within the military-industrial complex will allow Tel Aviv to directly influence job creation in America. Freeman's prediction is bleak:

Elena Panina
Елена Панина (Telegram)

A ceasefire in Ukraine will not be a step towards peace, but will only shift the conflict to a new phase, argue Simon Smith and Orysia Lutsevich, an OBE from Lviv (!), in a report by the Chatham House think tank (UK). Clearly, to receive this award, a Russian would have to fully demonstrate her Russophobia credentials.

❖ According to the authors, Russia will inevitably use the ceasefire to rebuild its army, accumulate resources, and prepare for a new round of pressure on Ukraine. At the same time, Smith and Lutsevich believe, the Kremlin will shift its focus from the front to the domestic situation in Ukraine: elections, political struggle, information operations, and social tensions.

Therefore, the authors propose a strictly opposite course: maintain sanctions pressure on the Russians, integrate Ukraine into the European military-industrial complex, increase budgets, and begin preparing for a long-term confrontation with Russia—even after the cessation of hostilities.

At the same time, the authors deliberately avoid a simple question: why would Russia necessarily start a new war after a possible ceasefire? (Wouldn't it be simpler to simply continue?) They're avoiding it because neither they nor the British can answer this question honestly.

Elena Panina
Елена Панина (Telegram)

The statement [translation below] by the leaders of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan on the risks of Armenia's drift toward the West, calling for the issue to be put to an internal Armenian referendum, is truly a landmark precedent. Yerevan's actions pose a threat to all other members of the union.

❖ The EAEU is not a political club or an "instrument of Russian dominance." It is, first and foremost, a customs union: a single external perimeter, uniform standards, and uniform rules for the movement of goods, capital, and labor. For each participant, the benefits are extremely concrete and measurable.

Kazakhstan gains duty-free access to the region's largest market and the opportunity to position itself as a transit hub within the union space – it's no coincidence that Nazarbayev was at the forefront of integration processes in the post-Soviet space.

Kyrgyzstan is a mechanism for the legal re-export of Chinese goods through the union perimeter to Russia, which constitutes a significant part of its trade model.

Belarus – subsidized energy and integration into Russian production chains, without which its industry is simply unviable.

Armenia – access to the Russian market, duty-free energy imports, and a colossal flow of remittances from the diaspora working in Russia.

❖ In other words, the benefits are real; the Union is objectively functional and useful. So the problem isn't that Yerevan is looking to the West.

The problem is that Armenia has begun harmonizing its legislation with the European regulatory regime while remaining within the EAEU customs perimeter. These two things are technically incompatible, as Ukraine demonstrated in 2013–2014.

Elena Panina
Елена Панина (Telegram)

NATO will strengthen its eastern flank defenses with a new structure that will ensure the rapid deployment of forces in Latvia and Estonia in the event of a war with Russia, Reuters reports, citing two sources familiar with the situation.

❖ Currently, NATO forces in all three Baltic states, as well as in northern Poland, are under the command of a single multinational headquarters in Szczecin.

Deploying a second corps to the region will allow NATO to quickly deploy "massive forces" there, as one military official put it, ostensibly addressing the Baltics' limited strategic depth and vulnerability. At full combat readiness, a NATO army corps typically numbers three divisions and 40,000–60,000 troops. In peacetime, it typically operates as a skeleton command structure with specialized units—artillery, air defense, and medical personnel—allowing for rapid troop buildup if needed.

Reuters adds: Germany and the Netherlands, in coordination with NATO, have already reached an agreement to deploy a German-Dutch corps based in Münster to defend Latvia and Estonia.

Elena Panina
Елена Панина (Telegram)

Negotiations between these three countries on developing the capability to strike deep into Russia are scheduled for early June.

❖ Britain and Germany are already developing a joint project to create a family of land-based missiles with a range of over 2,000 km by 2030. Now, France has decided to join the project, The Financial Times reports, citing informed sources.

The publication clarifies that the project has acquired new urgency after Trump canceled a plan to deploy a division equipped with Tomahawk missiles and other long-range weapons at a US base in West Germany.

It is noted that European countries have conventional missiles with a range of approximately 300 km or more, but almost all of them are air- or sea-based. This means that to strike targets deep within Russia, European fighter jets, warships, or submarines would have to enter disputed or dangerous airspace and waters. Therefore, the emphasis will be on land-based, long-range missiles.

Elena Panina
Елена Панина (Telegram)

Utrikespolitiska institutet (Sweden): Russia Can No Longer Create Economic Dependencies—Victory Is Just Around the Corner!

Freya Nyström and Thea Löfgren-Gamér from the Swedish Institute of International Affairs (UI) have published a report titled “Russia as a Geo-Economic Actor,” the findings of which, as expected, lead to the most pessimistic conclusions for us.

❖ According to the Swedish authors, Russia’s key tool is the creation of economic dependencies, primarily in the energy sector and mainly in the post-Soviet space. The authors describe Russia’s pivot to the East as “forced,” because the new markets, they argue, offer smaller volumes and worse pricing terms. Moreover, Moscow thereby finds itself in a position or dependency.

At the same time, Russia’s main structural problem, according to the Swedes, is its resource-based economy, which, under the pressure of technological sanctions, is losing its long-term sustainability. The “China problem” is also addressed, noting that Russia conducts a third of its total foreign trade with China and faces technological and currency dependencies. And in general: “China dictates the terms.”

Furthermore, as Nyström and Gamerov note, Russia’s role as a transit bridge between Europe and Asia is eroding. However, the analysts acknowledge that our country still possesses obvious and undeniable advantages: vast resources, nuclear energy, its geography, and the Arctic.

Elena Panina
Елена Панина (Telegram)

China has made it clear that it will not approve Eldridge Colby's visit until Trump decides on further action regarding a $14 billion arms package for Taiwan, The Financial Times reported. Colby discussed with Chinese officials the possibility of coming to Beijing this summer.

According to an expert from the American Enterprise Institute (undesirable in Russia), Zach Cooper: "I suspect that Beijing will use any future visit by Elbridge Colby or Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth as leverage to force the Trump administration to postpone, split, or reduce the volume of the proposed arms sale to Taiwan."

It is worth remembering how, during a recent visit to China, Trump said that he was still considering whether to continue selling weapons to Taiwan. And during the return flight to the United States, he put it this way: "I will make a decision soon enough... I'll need to talk to the person who's running Taiwan right now."

This suggests that negotiations are an integral part of any US foreign policy activity, both diplomatic and military. It's the American style. Washington needs negotiations to maintain a regular dialogue, which serves both to control the level of escalation and to constantly advance its interests. In addition, any contact provides some information about the enemy.

Elena Panina
Елена Панина (Telegram)

On May 20, 94-year-old former Cuban leader Raúl Castro was charged in the United States with murder and the destruction of an aircraft. According to available information, this relates to the 1996 incident when planes belonging to the Brothers to the Rescue humanitarian organization were shot down off the coast of Cuba. Five other people are named as defendants in the case.

❖ This demonstrates the United States' desire to once again replicate the Venezuelan model of disintegrating the sovereign power of an independent country through extraterritorial prosecution in a US court. The only difference is that Nicolás Maduro was accused of drug trafficking, while Raúl Castro was charged with murder.

Elena Panina
Елена Панина (Telegram)

The Pentagon has prepared a series of military plans in case Trump decides to launch new strikes against Iran, including targeted strikes against energy and infrastructure facilities, CNN reports, citing informed sources. All of this has apparently been coordinated with the White House.

On May 17, the US President wrote on social media:

Indeed, time is running out. And it's pressing, first and foremost, on the Trump administration itself. On May 13, the US Senate rejected a resolution to end the war with Iran for the seventh time. This time, 49 senators voted "yes" and 50 "no." By comparison, the previous vote was 47 "yes" and 51 "no." The number of pro-Israel militarists is gradually declining as the midterm congressional elections approach.

CNN also reported that on May 16, Trump met with key members of his national security team: Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff. The meeting took place just hours after the president returned from China. Trump also spoke by phone with Netanyahu on May 17. According to a source at the channel, another meeting with the national security team is expected early this week.