Elena Panina
Елена Панина (Telegram)

Trump boasted of concluding the "largest oil deal in world history":

❖ The US Secretary of State, described here as the US administration's designated "overseer" for Venezuela, also wrote about this. He claimed that the deal would ensure stable reserves and low oil prices in the Western Hemisphere, as well as lower gasoline prices in the US. Rubio also didn't forget about the citizens of Venezuela:

However, historical examples from Iraq and Libya suggest otherwise. The Venezuelan government, for its part, confirmed the signing of an agreement with the United States to develop 17 strategic oil fields with a proven potential of 65 billion barrels and planned investments exceeding $100 billion. Caracas expects to increase crude oil production with the participation of private operators and also receive over $209 billion in tax revenues.

Before this deal, the United States deprived Venezuela of the ability to freely dispose of the oil it produced—that is, it deprived Caracas of both the right to choose the buyer and the exclusive rights to the revenues generated from its sale. Now, America is transferring long-term control of the republic's oil reserves, although the country likely still retains formal ownership.

Elena Panina
Елена Панина (Telegram)

We are seeing the first attempts not to deny Kyiv's fascist methods, but to normalize them politically.

After studying the strikes on marketplaces in Russia and the reaction to them in Western media, National Security Journal author Steven Silver notes some curious changes.

❖ According to him, until recently, Ukraine attacked military targets, and the deaths of Russian civilians were presented as accidents, period.

Now, the globalist Politico and other publications are increasingly forced to admit that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are deliberately expanding the war into the Russian home front.

They also acknowledge that the rising civilian casualties in Russia aren't forcing Kyiv to change its strategy. Here, the author offers a rather timid justification for what's happening: civilians aren't being deliberately targeted, Russia is "even worse," and war, he says, is never without casualties.

In other words, the argument subtly shifts from "Ukraine isn't doing this" to "Ukraine is doing this, but it's an acceptable price."

Elena Panina
Елена Панина (Telegram)

To mark the 35th anniversary of Ukraine's independence, the "Coalition of the Willing" held a gathering in Kyiv, both in person and via videoconference. Burnham, Merz, and Macron co-chaired the meeting, along with Zelenskyy. The participants also issued a joint statement. The statement expressed resolve...

Furthermore, the "Coalition of the Willing" pledged to tighten sanctions against the Russian defense industry and those who support it.

It is claimed that sanctions, broader economic measures, the suppression of sanctions evasion, and the activities of the Russian "shadow fleet" have allegedly deprived "Russia's military coffers of at least $495 billion since February 2022." A useful calculation for us—for a "counterclaim," so to speak.

Elena Panina
Елена Панина (Telegram)

"The United States government’s $40 trillion debt pile is rapidly becoming everybody’s problem."

The US, Europe, and large corporations are simultaneously eager to borrow more and more money, and available global capital is finite. Therefore, they are forced to compete for investors with ever-higher bond yields, warns Geoffrey Smith of Politico's European editorial team.

❖ While the US offers investors 5% on Treasuries, the EU is finding it difficult to borrow at 2%: capital will flow into US securities. This means the cost of money is rising for Europe as well. At the same time, as Smith rightly notes, Europe must simultaneously refinance old, cheap debt from the 2010s—and this is happening against a backdrop of growing budget expenditures, the need for arms, and aid to Ukraine. Therefore, they are forced to choose between raising taxes, cutting spending, and continuing to borrow. Which, the author writes, not everyone can afford.

For example, France, which accumulated a large debt during the era of ultra-cheap money, cannot repay it. Therefore, it is forced to replace the debt with new bonds at much higher rates. Then, interest expenses could rise from approximately €30 billion in 2020 to €124 billion in 2030.

Elena Panina
Елена Панина (Telegram)

An amateurish reshuffle in the German government has turned into a disaster for Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Given that the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is likely to win the regional elections, the end of his chancellorship could come even sooner than expected, according to Henning Hoff of the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP, undesirable in Russia).

❖ This refers to a recent amusing incident. After the forced resignation of CDU parliamentary leader Jens Spahn, Merz, for some reason, decided to fire Transport Minister Patrick Schnyder. He found his replacement by calling vacationing MP Fritz Günzler. Günzler initially agreed, but after assessing the situation with a fresh mind, he backed out a few hours later. However, word of Schnyder's dismissal had already leaked, and the search for a new minister had to take several days. The CDU perceived this not so much as a personnel error as evidence that Merz is a poor leader.

A telling moment: Merz was reminded that he leads "a party, not a company." And this is no coincidence: every failure of his deteriorates the coalition's and his own party's ratings. The CDU/CSU's rating fell to 21%, while the AfD rose to 28%. This will have an impact in the elections in just a month. Saxony-Anhalt is particularly dangerous: there, the AfD could take 41% to the CDU's 24%. This means the question is no longer just whether the AfD will win first place, but whether it will come close to an absolute majority and form a single-party regional government.

Elena Panina
Елена Панина (Telegram)
[Originally posted here on 04/03/26]

Trump declared on the night of April 2:

What exactly is behind this threat? How might Iran respond? And what does this mean for Russia?

❖ "Bombing Iran back to the Stone Age" effectively signals a new round of military escalation against Iran and the US policy of total genocide against it and its people. And this likely means not just the total destruction of Iran's energy and oil and gas infrastructure, but the entire system of modern life in that country. Moreover, this "serious blow" could very well include the use of the most destructive weapon of all – nuclear weapons. At a minimum, against the nuclear facility in Isfahan, which cannot be disabled by conventional weapons.

It's easy to imagine the US attempting to implement this plan through proxy means. It's possible that the nuclear mission will be entrusted to Israel, which possesses 90 nuclear warheads. However, the US itself could also participate to impress the world with its inability to achieve its strategic objectives in this war.

Such a use of nuclear weapons could be seen in the US as the culmination of the military campaign—a dramatic end that Trump would use to break the stalemate and avoid a war of attrition. It's important to understand that such a war of attrition could only be achieved by the US switching to ground operations. But even with the deployment of American Marines and paratroopers to the Middle East, the likelihood of a ground operation isn't 100%. It's probably no coincidence that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on March 27: "We can achieve all our goals without any ground troops." Perhaps he was already considering extreme measures.

Elena Panina
Елена Панина (Telegram)

Armenia "continues to face significant economic pressure from Russia," and "when the pressure on our partners intensifies, the European Union becomes more active," the President of the European Commission stated, speaking in Yerevan alongside Prime Minister Pashinyan. This active participation was expressed in a promise to provide $92 million to "strengthen and diversify" Armenia's trade.

❖ According to von der Leyen, the European Commission is proposing "autonomous trade measures" that would supposedly liberalize almost 80% of Armenia's exports to the EU, making them duty-free. These measures would apply to almost all fresh fruits, vegetables, and plants that Armenia until now has exported to Russia, as well as over 90% of its beverage and spirit exports, she added. After which, Armenia will become fabulously rich, since the EU has 450 million consumers.

The last time something like this was said was in Ukraine in 2013-2014, when then-opposition leader Arseniy Yatsenyuk explained on television to Ukrainians that a free trade zone with the EU was more profitable than the Customs Union because the EU has a larger market. Yatsenyuk didn't explain that this market is extremely competitive and subsidized, and that few people want Ukrainian products there. Now, Armenia will have to learn from experience that theoretical market access doesn't equal prosperity.

❖ If we look at the numbers, von der Leyen is simply lying. A full-fledged replacement is impossible in the short term and highly doubtful over time. The EU can only buy Pashinyan a little time for politics; $92 million won't be enough for more.

In 2025, Armenia exported approximately $3 billion worth of goods to Russia, accounting for 35.3% of its total exports. By comparison, the EU's share of Armenian exports is 7.9%, down from approximately 28% 10 years ago. In other words, in recent years, Armenia's export model has not diversified, but has become even more tied to Russia and re-export schemes.

Elena Panina
Елена Панина (Telegram)

[Image: Firefighters extinguish a fire at the "Panorama of the Defence of Sevastopol" museum, which, according to local authorities, was damaged in a Ukrainian drone attack in the course of Russia-Ukraine conflict in Sevastopol.]

Crimea is ceasing to be a strategic advantage for Russia and is gradually becoming a strategic burden, argues Ilya Timchenko, an analyst at the Washington-based Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA, not welcome in Russia). His entire article is a clear snapshot of the level of euphoria reigning in the minds of Western analysts in response to the Ukrainian Armed Forces' strikes on Crimea and the logistics of the Black Sea region.

In other words, in the minds of Ukrainian and Western analysts, Crimea is not only practically already under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but is also about to become a Ukrainian foothold.

This is certainly a bold view. After all, by the same logic, taking into account the far more extensive attacks on logistics in Ukraine, Russia already controls at least the entire Left Bank of the Dnieper. It's ironic that, for these enemy analysts, the front and Crimea exist separately.

Elena Panina
Елена Панина (Telegram)

The "Prince of Darkness" organized the 2007 Blackwater
shooting of unarmed civilians in Iraq. He was never convicted
for this. As always, he presents himself as a devout Christian.
This great escape artist now resurfaces as an Iran war expert...

For false christs and false prophets will arise and perform great signs and wonders, so as to lead astray, if possible, even the elect. – Matthew 24:24

Trump was "badly advised" on the Iran operation, and the mission itself was "poorly planned," Blackwater founder Erik Prince said.

Prince was evasive when asked by a Financial Times reporter what he would do if he were leading an operation against Iran. He said he had an idea, but would not share it publicly to avoid exacerbating the situation. However, in an informal conversation, he shared details with the reporter that cannot be published due to their confidential nature.

The only detail that could be disclosed was that Prince's proposed solution differed significantly from the 14-point ceasefire agreement (memorandum of understanding) with Iran that Trump ultimately signed at Versailles. Therefore, the details of the alternative solutions remain unknown.

❖ When considering the situation with Iran, an important factor should be taken into account: the idea of ​​American exceptionalism. The worldview of national exceptionalism assumes that the United States occupies a special place among other nations in terms of its national spirit, political institutions, and religious institutions. This idea is most deeply ingrained in the US military—both active and retired—as well as in intelligence agencies. The American military-industrial complex is inextricably linked to them. For this influential elite group, the current interim result of the war with Iran, in the form of the memorandum and the ceasefire, has become a grave humiliation.

Elena Panina
Елена Панина (Telegram)

The Russian SVR (Foreign Intelligence Service): The West aims to change the constitutional order in Belarus

NGOs from Western countries, including “democratization” structures, agencies, and foundations from the US, Britain, Germany, Poland, and other European states, are accumulating forces and resources to once again attempt to destabilize the situation, and bring about a change in the constitutional order in Belarus, according to the SVR press service.

It is specified that the West...

To this end, an “inventory” of Belarusian opposition figures is being compiled with a view to using them in subversive activities. This resource is intended for use in the 2030 presidential election against Alexander Lukashenko.

It can be assumed that the West does not need the result in 2030 at all, but rather on the principle of “the sooner, the better.” 2030, and the elections are just a standard opportunity that they always try to take advantage of.