Ukraine regaining control over Crimea? — Well, not so fast!

Elena Panina
Елена Панина (Telegram)

[Image: Firefighters extinguish a fire at the "Panorama of the Defence of Sevastopol" museum, which, according to local authorities, was damaged in a Ukrainian drone attack in the course of Russia-Ukraine conflict in Sevastopol.]

Crimea is ceasing to be a strategic advantage for Russia and is gradually becoming a strategic burden, argues Ilya Timchenko, an analyst at the Washington-based Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA, not welcome in Russia). His entire article is a clear snapshot of the level of euphoria reigning in the minds of Western analysts in response to the Ukrainian Armed Forces' strikes on Crimea and the logistics of the Black Sea region.

🔺 "Ukraine's strategic advantage in the event of regaining control over Crimea is difficult to overestimate. This will significantly strengthen its position in protecting trade routes and interests on all sides of the peninsula, including the Sea of ​​Azov, as well as trade and military corridors in the Black Sea," [Timchenko writes. He adds that the prospect of] "losing Crimea" [will likely trigger a political crisis in Russia, forcing its leadership to] "sit down at the negotiating table."

In other words, in the minds of Ukrainian and Western analysts, Crimea is not only practically already under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but is also about to become a Ukrainian foothold.

This is certainly a bold view. After all, by the same logic, taking into account the far more extensive attacks on logistics in Ukraine, Russia already controls at least the entire Left Bank of the Dnieper. It's ironic that, for these enemy analysts, the front and Crimea exist separately.


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