Andrew Korybko
Andrew Korybko's Newsletter

The US’ decision not to issue visas for the Belarusian delegation to the Board of Peace meeting was a “plausibly deniable” form of humiliation against them for Lukashenko snubbing the event since Trump already takes him for granted as a future vassal and therefore expected his personal attendance.

[Feb 23, 2026] The Belarusian Foreign Ministry complained on social media that “Visas for our delegation to the Peace Council meeting were not issued, despite all documents being submitted on time and procedures followed…If even basic formalities aren’t respected, what ‘peace’ are we talking about?”

This follows President Alexander Lukashenko declining to attend last week’s first meeting for unclear reasons, though not due to pressure from Putin he said, after accepting Trump’s invitation to join the Board of Peace.

As was explained here in January, Trump always has the final say on the Board’s decisions and activities, and he can even reverse them at any time after they’re already made or being implemented. The group that he founded therefore functions as a place to buy influence with him, but that doesn’t guarantee that he’ll do what’s asked of him.

Even so, since the Board might discuss the Ukrainian Conflict, Putin expressed interest in accepting Trump’s invitation to join so that Russia can have a seat at the table. Lukashenko’s interests in accepting Trump’s invitation arguably differ from Putin’s since he’s involved in very serious discussions with the US over sanctions relief and alleviating other pressure upon Belarus.

Strategic Culture Foundation (Editorial)
Strategic Culture Foundation (fondsk.ru)

Belarus and the White House are ready to shift to a new format of engagement

Relations between Belarus and the United States have changed markedly over the past year. Until recently, direct political dialogue between Washington and Minsk seemed impossible; today, however, White House representatives visit Minsk almost constantly, meeting personally with Alexander Lukashenko and engaging in highly respectful conversations with him.

This shift in Washington’s policy toward Belarus—Russia’s closest ally—matters not only for bilateral relations but also for the broader agenda, including resolving the conflict in Ukraine. Consequently, John Cole's visit to Minsk on September 15–16, as a special envoy for Donald Trump, can be seen as a key element of the international processes currently unfolding in Eastern Europe.

It is worth recalling that under the previous White House administration led by Joe Biden, U.S. policy toward Belarus relied primarily on sanctions and support for the Belarusian opposition. However, with Donald Trump’s rise to power, Washington’s approach to Minsk has shifted in certain respects. While the U.S. has not abandoned its negative assessment of Belarus’s political system or the sanctions it previously imposed—which the White House views as a negotiating tool—it has prioritized direct dialogue with Belarusian authorities as part of a "deal-making" approach.