Who started the war in Ukraine?
Reidar Kaarboe
Hva Mener Partiene
Examples from other wars | If you can point to the other person and give a good reason to say He started it!, you can get away with war, even if it's based on an outright lie. In international law, it is forbidden to start a war unless someone has attacked you first. To some however it is so imperative to start one, that they would create a false attack against themselves to legitimize it.
When we look at the USA's wars after the Second World War, this is a recurring pattern. All of the wars for which the US has been responsible were started because of false, self-created events, and all were probably illegal under international law.
Examples include the Vietnam War, the Iraq War in 1990, Afghanistan in 2001, Iraq again in 2003, Libya in 2011, and Syria in 2011, to name but a few. As long as it looks credible, we buy it. And in hindsight, we forgive our friends, no matter how horrible what they did was. Love is blind, especially when a lot of money is involved.
The war between Israel and the Palestinians has the same problem, but that's for another article. For the war in Ukraine, there are two theories that dominate.
Theory 1: The US wanted to provoke Russia into war | Important in this theory is that the US broke a clear promise not to expand NATO eastwards. The expansion of NATO was seen as crossing a red line and creating an existential threat to Russia. Then, the US spent $5 billion to design and implement a regime change in Kyiv in 2014. This involved a crisis initiation in which snipers killed people on both sides of the demonstrations, both protesters and police. Ukraine got a strongly anti-Russian coup government based on old Nazi ideals, which became a threat to ethnic Russians in the East.
A widely agreed Minsk 2 peace agreement from 2014 was later revealed to be not real but a pretext to give Ukraine time to upgrade its military to NATO standards. Ukraine was ready for war in 2022.
A month into the war in 2022, a new peace treaty called the Istanbul Agreement was negotiated, and it was ready for signing when Boris Johnson from the UK came to Zeneskyj in Kiev with a message from Joe Biden in the US that no peace treaty should be signed because the West would prevail against Russia. In retrospect, all parties have said this was a good agreement that would have saved a million lives if it had been implemented.
The theory claims that Russia was provoked into a proxy war against the US and NATO by the US, which is consistent with previous US practice. The purpose behind this is to weaken Russia, bring about regime change, and divide a country with enormous resources.
Theory 2: Russia wants to subjugate all of Europe | The second theory claims that Putin, for no reason whatsoever, started a war against Ukraine as part of an empire-building exercise. Ukraine will be followed by wars against the Baltic, Poland, Romania, and eventually all of Europe, because Putin is crazy. The US and a united Europe call it an unprovoked, full-scale war of aggression. Putin has never been interested in any peace agreement, neither Minsk 2 nor the Istanbul agreement.
This theory has already dragged the whole of Europe into an extreme arms spiral, now it is promised to set aside 800 billion euros over 5 years for rearmament, defense, new weapons systems, and new weapons stocks. The price includes gifts to Ukraine to defeat the Russians in a war that Europe is now turning into a war against Russia. For Europe, peace in Ukraine is more dangerous than war.
One of the arguments against this theory is that Russia hardly seems interested in the rest of Ukraine, let alone the rest of Europe; Russia is waging an unoffensive and incredibly slow, costly war. In short: on this road to victory over Europe, Russia does not have a nubbejangs. Yet Europe chooses a path to war, not to peace.
Of course, Europe chooses the path of 800 billion, almost half an oil fund, to help promote European industry and the arms trade. Choosing anything else is madness in a Europe struggling with high prices and bad times. The amount makes the aid packages from the financial crisis and the COVID-19 crisis pale into insignificance. A God-given sprinkle from heaven! The choice goes without saying. Whether we survive is another matter.
For theory 1, we can ask the following questions and see what the story answers | Here, the reader must find the answer himself based on sources that he believes are good enough. Many people have spoken out and are speaking out, from one wing to the extreme other. It's safe to say that some of it is propaganda and a damned lie.
● Was such a promise broken?
● Compared to the Cuban Missile Crisis, can Russia claim that the US/NATO has crossed a red line and that NATO expansion poses an existential threat?
● Is it true that the US invested 5 billion dollars in regime change in Ukraine?
● Is it true that the US designed and supported the coup d'état in Ukraine in 2014?
● Is it true that Victoria Nuland discussed with the US ambassador to Ukraine on the phone a week before the coup who should sit in the upcoming coup government?
● Is it true that the coup government was strongly anti-Russian and inspired by old Nazi ideals?
● If so, is it okay that the US installed a coup government in Ukraine that became a threat to all ethnic Russians, a neighboring country to Russia?
Is it right that the Minsk2 agreement was never intended to be honored by the West, but only served to give Ukraine time to gear up for war from 2014 to 2022?
● Is it true that all parties had accepted the Istanbul peace agreement in 2022?
● Is it true that the US made Ukraine walk away from the Istanbul agreement?
● Is it true that the US has stated that the purpose of the war was to weaken Russia, perhaps bring about regime change in Russia, and divide the country?
● Is it true that the US has had people actively participating in the war against Russia on the ground in Ukraine and in neighboring countries?
● Is it correct to say that this is a proxy war between Russia and the US?
For theory 2, we can ask the following questions and see what history answers:
● Has Putin expressed that he wanted to invade and take all of Ukraine?
● Has Putin expressed that he wants to take more countries in Europe, perhaps all of Europe?
● Does Russia have the resources and finances for a war that includes other countries?
● Is it correct to say that the US has not had any involvement in Ukraine that has contributed to causing the war?
● Has Putin been clear that he does not want a ceasefire, but a lasting and final peace in Ukraine?
● Who is Russia's legitimate counterpart in the peace negotiations?
● Does Europe want peace and normalization or continued war in Ukraine?
● Are economic considerations driving Europe's choices?
Russia's demands for peace | Since before the war started, Russia has been crystal clear on its conditions to Ukraine/USA:
● The counties in eastern Ukraine where ethnic Russians live shall provide security for the right of their inhabitants to use the Russian language, belong to the Russian religion, and practice Russian culture. As far as I understand, Minsk 2 and the Istanbul agreement were open to independent units under Ukraine, but now, after several years of war, Russia will probably demand that they be incorporated into Russia.
● A Russian-hostile and Nazi-inspired regime in Ukraine will be replaced by a new elected regime.
● Crimea will be Russian territory.
So the reader may ask: who wants peace, who has tried to create peace agreements and has said they will sign, and who does NOT want any peace agreement? There are several options: Russia, Ukraine, the US, and Europe.
(Translation: DeepL (free version) + Grammarly (free version))
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