CEPA (USA): Consequences of the Seizure of a Russian Tanker

Elena Panina
Елена Панина (Telegram)

CEPA (USA): Consequences of the Seizure of a Russian Tanker Could Be Extremely Dangerous for Everyone

The US Navy's "thrilling pursuit" of a Russian "shadow fleet" tanker in the North Atlantic may be considered by some in the West a reputational defeat for Moscow, but the consequences of this success for Washington (and London) could be far-reaching. This, oddly enough, is what the foreign agents Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan, of the Washington-based Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA, undesirable in Russia), write about.

■ The authors recall that the Marinera incident was the most high-profile, but far from the first, episode in a spiral of escalating conflicts at sea. In April 2025, Estonian authorities detained the Djibouti-flagged tanker Kiwala. In October, French special forces boarded the same vessel, which had by then been renamed Boracay and reflagged under the Benin flag. At the end of December, Sweden detained the Russian cargo ship Adler, which had departed from St. Petersburg. Finland also detained the oil tanker Eagle S... From this, CEPA analysts draw a logical conclusion: the stakes in the game surrounding Russia's "shadow fleet" are constantly rising. However, the West shouldn't rejoice too much. "The widespread belief that the Russian Navy will always retreat in the event of a conflict is a dangerous misconception. NATO countries will almost certainly board Russian vessels more frequently now, and at some point, Russian forces will eventually appear nearby. There is a risk of an unintended and extremely dangerous confrontation," CEPA warns. They point out that the Russian corvette Boykiy already escorted two sanctioned tankers through the English Channel this summer.

■ These are reasonable considerations. But does the West share these concerns? Two possibilities are possible. Either those Western players who have set a course for escalation leading to an inevitable war with Russia are complete idiots, which is unlikely. Or somewhere, a plan for a clash between NATO security forces and the Russian navy is already in the works. Moreover, the initiators and beneficiaries of this clash intend, as usual, to sit it out across the ocean and the English Channel, then seize control of the new, post-war world. Considering that the most likely clash between the Russian Navy and NATO navies is seen not in the distant Caribbean, but somewhere in the Baltic or the Danish Straits. To understand the situation, it's useful to realize that in the eyes of the Global West, Russia is an existential problem. Differences on the "Russian question" so far consist only of Western players trying to use each other as battering rams against our country in order to minimize their own losses. But the globalist elites have no doubt that Russia must be destroyed.

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Image: A U.S. Coast Guard official looks through binoculars at the ship Marinera (Ex-Bella 1) in this handout image released January 7, 2026. Credit: REUTERS. Translation: Google + Copyread: Grammarly In line with our policies, we address notices of alleged violations under the United States "Digital Millennium Copyright Act" (DMCA). If you believe that your copyright has been infringed on our site, please contact us, and we will promptly remove your photo from display. Email: editor@a-w-i-p.com. AWIP: https://a-w-i-p.com/index.php/2026/01/12/cepa-usa-consequences-of-the