Aggression against Iran: Interim Results
Elena Panina
Елена Панина (Telegram) (Part 1)
Елена Панина (Telegram) (Part 2)
Trump miscalculated. The death of Ayatollah Khamenei did not affect Iran's firm stance to defend its sovereignty. Moreover, the martyrdom of the Rahbar united the nation and brought thousands of people onto the streets across the world. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and continues to carry out targeted strikes against US bases. Trump's actions are clearly influenced by the "dizziness of success" following the capture of Maduro, the scandal in Davos, and the piracy against tankers, where he got away with everything. But Iran turned out to be no Venezuela.
It's unlikely that Trump's entourage didn't consider this scenario. However, capturing Iran is too tempting a target. The strategy here is clear: by dealing with Venezuela (ranked first in oil reserves) and then Iran (ranked third), the US will get a de facto monopoly over oil reserves. This is already world domination, that is, the real embodiment of the MAGA program. Perhaps in the eyes of the US President, such an end justifies the means. But it could also turn out like this: "It looked good on paper, but they forgot about the ravines."
❖ From the first hours of the attack, Iran has performed admirably. Clearly, the lessons of the summer war of 2025 and the uprising of this winter have been learned. Despite Khamenei's death in a morning strike, a large-scale response immediately followed—both against Israel and against American targets in the Middle East. Moreover, unlike in previous years, all threats were carried out. From this, we can conclude that disagreements among Iran's top elites have currently faded into the background. Aggression is perceived as a threat to everyone, as a potential state collapse that would bury everyone. So, for now, together. For the duration of the conflict, of course.
The second conclusion is the absolute rejection of belligerence by the Iranian population. Discontent with the government has been forgotten in the face of the enemy. There's a noticeable increase not just in patriotic rhetoric, but also in references to Iran's ancient history. This is a clear departure from the previous religious "internationalism" that dominated Tehran's propaganda
The obvious professionalism of the Iranian military's actions is also noteworthy. The scale of the response indicates serious prior preparation. Iran's close contacts and coordination with Russia and China are likely taking shape.
❖ For US allies in the Gulf, the Iranian strikes have been a painful lesson. For the first time since the 1990-91 war, the well-being of the Arab monarchies is under threat. They, for now, appear to be the main losers. For years, they had built close relations with the US. Military bases on their territory seemed like a guarantee of security. Now, it seems, the situation has changed radically: it seems the Americans didn't even consult them much, presenting them with a fait accompli.
All this has exposed the fragility of the Gulf monarchies. Unlimited funding for social services for citizens who are effectively minorities in their own countries, enormous expenditures on image projects, incredible military spending that more closely resembles corruption on a national scale—all of this was threatened overnight.
The UAE's aspirations to become a new global center of finance and services are being thwarted amid sanctions and wars. It's highly likely that this aspect was also in mind when the Americans made their military decision. They don't need competitors; they only need subordinates.
❖ Another worry for the Arab monarchies is that they have become de facto accomplices in Israel's actions. This issue has always provoked deep-seated discontent in various sectors of society, especially after three years of unpunished extermination of Palestinians. Now, with continued military action against Iran, all Gulf monarchies face the threat of internal destabilization.
In Jordan, in particular, the deteriorating economic situation is already prompting violence against the royal family. In Saudi Arabia, the vast royal family, divided into clan groups, is ready to reconsider the role of Prince Mohammed bin Salman as the de facto ruler. One should also not forget the significant Shiite population of Saudi Arabia, concentrated in oil-rich regions.
The stakes in these games are the participants' lives. Therefore, for now, the reactions of these countries are formal, vague statements pending further developments.
❖ Israel has once again found itself, as in the 12-day war of 2025, as an instrument of American policy, especially in a situation where Trump has not articulated a coherent strategy. Loud pronouncements about regime change in Iran are irrelevant, especially since, despite Khamenei's death, no real results are yet visible. Moreover, reports have emerged that Israel is the culprit behind the chaos and the unclear future. There's some truth to this: Netanyahu is seeking military aggression to alleviate growing economic and social problems. Military adventures are a means for him to cling to power, but they could also land him in the dock.
From the very beginning, it was clear that Tel Aviv was at risk of repeating the 2025 war, when, for the first time in 40 years, it faced a response from a peer adversary. The entire security system proved powerless, and this affected public sentiment. Efforts are currently underway in Israel to limit information about the scale of losses, but public enthusiasm is already lacking
In Europe, only Kallas has fully supported the aggressiveness, and her resignation amid widespread dissatisfaction with it and her conflict with the power-hungry von der Leyen seems increasingly likely. It turns out that even submissive allies can show disobedience, especially if they hope to change the power balance within the hegemon. Thus, Trump finds himself increasingly isolated
❖ The following developments appear likely. Khamenei's death did not lead to the collapse of the regime, and in all likelihood, it will not. Expectations of a split within Iran's leadership still appear unfounded. How the US can achieve this without a ground operation is beyond me. New rounds of exchanges of blows continue. The global economy is already reacting to the situation, with rising energy prices and, eventually, all other raw materials
The US lacks the forces in the region for a ground operation. Pressure on the White House to end the war will intensify. It's possible that Trump will be satisfied with some symbolic statements and agreements on the nuclear program. But now the question arises: will even these be reached?
❖ The main conclusion for Russia: negotiations with the US are irrelevant. This refers, of course, to the Ukrainian conflict. Whatever the agreement in Anchorage, it's clear that the American side will not respect Russia's interests. Of course, there's the factor of Trump's personality, which seeks quick results under his own name. But for the United States, the fundamental reasons for eliminating Russia from the world stage are stronger.
It's clear that a breakthrough at the negotiating table is only possible after a breakthrough on the front lines. Both the Ukrainian case and the entire situation surrounding Iran once again demonstrate that in global politics today, the status of a real power is the decisive factor.
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