The Exorbitant Cost of the Iran War: Trump Got It Wrong
Elena Panina
Елена Панина (Telegram)
The war in Iran is only a week old, but the side effects for the US and the West are already so significant that they haven't yet had time to process them. More accurately, they were predicted, but they arrived unexpectedly, like winter for utilities. Costs are mounting, even though the Pentagon will try to avoid a ground operation, which it considers the most undesirable scenario. Regardless of what Trump says about it.
❖ Both this and other factors indicate that even if the US wins a protracted war against Iran, its exorbitant cost will be a major political defeat for Trump. Trying to save himself, he will escalate the escalation, becoming its hostage, which will bring him closer to Zelensky. For now, Trump wants to resolve everything with air strikes. He is currently adding a third carrier group to his two. But this is a dead end; it's limited in resources and, above all, in time.
The point is that the sanctions regime against Russia is cracking. The West doesn't believe it, but it has. It's completely in line with Chernomyrdin's "Never before has this happened, and here it is again." The "coalition of the willing" is in shock, but it's already clear that something has gone wrong for the US. The genie is out of the bottle, and no one knows yet what to do about it.
Military risks have wiped out cheap oil on the market. Prices have risen so high that the US vassals' economies are crumbling. Washington is forced to ease anti-Russian sanctions. Within a week, Russian oil exports have returned to profitability. The world has once again recognized that without Russian energy, alternative development strategies collapse. Even the EU wants to return to purchasing Russian gas.
❖ Now the US is viewing all of this as a forced short-term measure, planning to defeat Iran in six weeks, or by September at the latest, and then return to the old rules of the game. But nothing in life ever returns—especially time. The US is bogged down in war. The deadlines for its end are being pushed back. New deadlines are announced with an eye on the election factor, in the style of "Everything is under control." Meanwhile, Trump has nothing under control. Prices in the US are rising ahead of the midterm congressional elections, and sanctions against Russia are turning into a leaky suitcase without a handle. And this was definitely not planned.
The problem is that for now, everyone in Trump's circle have convincing themselves that the war will be short-lived. But how short is short-lived? A costly victory over Iran is a defeat for the US. It turns out that Iran is not great, but the US is small. And Trump will be blamed for this. "He brought the country to the brink. Iran couldn't win! He turned the US into a proxy for Israel!" — the American voter will say.
Realizing this, Trump is biting the bullet. But the more he does this, the more mistakes he makes. The longer Iran destroys the Arab infrastructure that serves the US, the more predictable the occupant of the White House becomes. Decisions become emotional, and the choice of alternatives narrows with ambition. A new Vietnam or Afghanistan syndrome will bury Big Donald. And it's too late to quickly withdraw from the war.
❖ Trump will try to dampen his own disaster by resorting to war psychosis, hoping to ride the wave through the November elections. He's flooding the military-industrial complex with orders, counting on support. But gasoline prices are driving inflation, and social programs are deteriorating. And, most importantly, BlackRock has seen its first mass withdrawal of investor funds. It was forced to impose withdrawal restrictions to avoid, as bankers say, "going into a debit balance." For Trump, this is the most serious consequence of his policies. It's far worse than consumer anger over rising prices.
Today, no one can say how long these trends will last. But the very fact that they're emerging is so telling that many are still afraid to draw any conclusions. One thing is clear: everything is not going as planned in Washington. Instead of an easy victory, there will be an escalation of costs. If Iran doesn't fall by November, the US Democratic Party will take over Congress, and Trump will have to answer for every dollar used and every life of American soldiers lost. And impeachment isn't the worst thing that awaits him in that case.
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