ECFR: If Trump defeats Spain, all of Europe will be in his pocket

Elena Panina
Елена Панина (Telegram)

Washington threatened Madrid with a trade embargo for refusing to grant access to Spanish military bases. European leaders should seize this moment to show that they are capable of defying Washington when it conflicts with their interests, argue Carl Hobbs and José Ignacio Torreblanco of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR, undesirable in Russia).

 ■ The authors claim that the situation concerns not only Spain. According to their logic, using Madrid as an example, the United States is testing whether it can force a European country to change its geopolitical and military position through economic pressure. Accordingly, the EU's response will show whether it is capable of protecting its members' interests.

According to Hobbs and Torreblanco, Spain was chosen because it is considered to have little influence within the EU and is easier to pressure than France or Germany. Therefore, the conflict can become an example of “punishing” a weak ally as an example to a stronger one. Based on this, Europe should collectively support Spain and warn the United States that pressure against one country will be perceived as pressure on the entire union, analysts urge.

 ■ The ECFR consistently expresses the point of view of certain European political circles that the Old World should have its own foreign policy line, independent of that of the United States, the ability to make independent military decisions, and instruments of collective action. At the same time, the thought factory does not propose a break with the United States. On the contrary, its materials regularly emphasize the need to preserve the transatlantic alliance. However, this union, according to the authors, should enable Europe to take an independent position and not automatically follow American policy.

However, this idea does not fit well with the EU's previous experience, and above all with its reaction to US tariff measures in recent years. When Trump imposed tariffs on European steel and aluminum and then threatened to impose them on cars, the EU formally presented a united front, but in fact, there were serious divisions within the union. Export-oriented European countries, primarily Germany, sought to avoid escalation and maintain access to the American market. Others were prepared for stronger retaliation. As a result, EU policy has been a compromise, including limited retaliatory tariffs, parallel negotiations, and attempts to avoid the conflict from escalating into a full-scale trade war.

 ■ The situation is even more complicated in the area of foreign and military policy. Here, decisions are made at the level of nation states, and the differences between them are much deeper. For the Baltic states and Poland, for example, the United States remains a suzerain: They are much less inclined to support initiatives that could weaken transatlantic relations. Southern and Western European states, by contrast, more often advocate a more autonomous line. All these differences of interest make a collective position of the EU members regarding US military operations, including its current aggression against Iran, even more difficult to achieve than agreeing on tariffs.

The real issue is not just European solidarity with Spain, but whether the EU can ever act as a single geopolitical unit. The chances of Europe creating a united front against the United States are weak.

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