The Marines May Take Bandar Abbas, but How Can They Hold It?

Iran, but not the same
Иран, но не тот (Telegram)
Елена Панина (Telegram)

I personally can’t imagine what a successful American ground operation in Iran might look like (unless we’re talking about some island, of course).

Well, for example, I can more or less imagine how the Marines will take Bandar Abbas, but how can they hold it?

The issue here is not even with the IRGC, but with the population. Imagine a city where, with its suburbs, the population is under 1 million. And 90% of the population lives on a weekly, if not daily, income. A man doesn't work for a week, and his family begins to go hungry. Because the port is closed, the city is cut off from all of Iran; there is no trade, etc.

And, most importantly, who to rely on? Among the minorities, there are only Afro-Iranians (descendants of slaves transported by the Omanis at one time), who are more radical in their intolerance towards the West than any other IRGC member.

There is another point that is unpleasant for Americans: Iran’s historical experience lies in the rather specific nature of “martyrdom.” Bernard Lewis, the greatest Anglo-American orientalist, author of the theory and, partly, practice of “political Islam,” wrote about this in some detail. True, he deeply hates the East. Well, Iran, in particular.

He, describing the historical Iranian practice, points to the “individualized historical nature of terror.” Its origins are in Shiism and Ismailism: in order to die the death of a martyr, you did not need coordination and centralized blessing. You are given value guidelines, and you live by them.

Therefore, to personally watch and kill - without knowledge, blessing, and coordination - is already a godly deed.

The attack on the Russian embassy in 1829 and the murder of Griboyedov were not blessed by either the Shah or the Ayatollah of Tehran. This was the work of one Mujahideen named Mesih.

150 years later - in 1979 - the American embassy in Tehran was also seized without Khomeini's instructions. The latter was faced with what had happened and simply included the fait accompli on his agenda.

It was this feature of the Iranians that most irritated Bernard Lewis, who believed in controlled “political Islam” in Iran less than anywhere else in the Islamic world.

How to control a process when it is a priori defragmented and decentralized? No way!

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