So, will the US launch a ground operation against Iran?

Elena Panina
Елена Панина (Telegram)

Nikolai Vavilov draws attention to a report by Axios about the Pentagon's preparations for a massive "final blow" against Iran.

The strike is planned to include:

1. Invasion or blockade of Kharg Island, the main hub for Iranian oil exports
2. Invasion of Larak Island, which helps Tehran consolidate control over the Strait of Hormuz
3. Seizure of the strategic island of Abu Musa and two smaller islands located near the western entrance to the Strait
4. Blockade or seizure of ships exporting Iranian oil from the eastern side of the Strait of Hormuz
5. Seizure of highly enriched uranium facilities on the Iranian mainland

The main question is what to prioritize. According to an Axios report, the US Department of War's priority is reopening the Strait of Hormuz. However, some credit should be given to the article's author, Israeli political journalist Barak Ravid.

❖ Moreover, Option 1 doesn't require a ground operation at all, as a more cost-effective option is to remotely destroy the island's infrastructure, rendering it unsuitable for oil exports. Option 4 is also straightforward and could be carried out by the US Air Force and Navy forces. Option 5 appears difficult to implement, as the highly enriched uranium facilities are located deep within Iranian territory. True, the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant is located near the Persian Gulf coast. It could be captured as an easier target and could claim success. However, it has nothing to do with uranium enrichment and will never be used in Iran's military nuclear program, should it be launched.

To unblock the Strait of Hormuz, options 2 and 3 should be considered. The chokepoint through which Iran allows passage for ships from friendly countries is located between the islands of Larak and Qeshm. It also charges transit fees there. Therefore, the United States first needs to capture Qeshm Island, which, incidentally, is much larger than Larak and closer to mainland Iran. Additionally, it needs to establish control over the islands of Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, and Lesser Tunb. These are farther from the mainland and smaller in area: 12 square kilometers, 11 square kilometers, and 1.4 square kilometers—making them easier targets.

❖ Meanwhile, a US amphibious assault group led by the amphibious assault ship Boxer and the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit (approximately 2,500 Marines) is moving to the combat zone. Another amphibious assault group, led by the amphibious assault ship Tripoli and the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (approximately 2,200 Marines), is also moving into the combat zone. Additionally, a brigade group from the 82nd Airborne Division of the US Army, consisting of 2,000-3,000 paratroopers, is being deployed to the region. Various special forces units are also likely to participate in the ground operation: Delta Force, Green Berets, and Rangers from the US Army, and Navy SEALs from the US Navy.

This concentration of forces indicates that a limited US ground operation is likely. However, this is a complex form of warfare, fraught with significant risks and losses of manpower and equipment. And the death toll among American troops will be in the tens, hundreds, and possibly thousands.

❖ Incidentally, recently, US Senator Lindsey Graham (a terrorist and extremist), a well-known voice for extreme measures against everyone and everything, declared: "We fought the Battle of Iwo Jima—we can do it again." He called for the capture of Kharg Island. However, he forgot to mention that in the Battle of Iwo Jima during World War II, American troops lost approximately 26,000 troops in 36 days of fighting. By today's standards, such a result would be devastating for Trump.

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