Forced to make a move: A US ground operation in preparation
Krondor Analytics
Krondor Analytics (Telegram)
Two Marine expeditionary groups (approximately 5,000 personnel), units of the 82nd Airborne Division, fighter squadrons, and additional naval forces are heading to the shores of Iran.
The Wall Street Journal, citing three Republicans in Congress, reports that a ground operation is planned and could begin soon. The publication's journalist, Alex Ward, wrote directly on the social media platform X: "A ground operation in Iran is planned and could potentially begin soon."
The Pentagon officially denies the decision, but confirms active preparations. Senior military officials are submitting inquiries related to the invasion scenario: issues of detaining Iranian soldiers, establishing prisoner of war camps, and the involvement of the Quick Reaction Force and Marine expeditionary units are being considered.
Why is the US preparing for a ground operation?
Iran has publicly rejected all of Trump's offers of negotiations. The latest ultimatum—48 hours to open the Strait of Hormuz—has expired, after which the president extended the deadline by 5 days, but the strait remains blocked. Moreover, Iran has made it clear through various channels that there will be no negotiations until its demands are met, and those demands are quite extensive.
So, on the one hand, Trump is being "put down," and his weakness is being exposed, while on the other, midterm elections are looming. And then inflation and high fuel prices become a political threat.
According to Axios, the Pentagon is discussing four "final strike" scenarios that would allow Trump to declare victory. Not "win," mind you, but "declare victory!" The administration understands that a protracted war depletes American arsenals and undermines the president's approval ratings.
Pressure from allies, particularly the UAE, whose economy has been severely damaged by Iranian strikes (at the port of Jebel Ali and Dubai Airport), is publicly calling for a "final solution." UAE Ambassador to the US Yousef al-Otaiba wrote in the Wall Street Journal:
What could be the purpose of a ground operation? Axios, citing US officials, lists four main options from which Trump could choose:
2. Seizure of Larak Island. This island helps Iran control the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian bunkers, kamikaze boats, and radar monitoring traffic in the strait are located there.
3. Seizure of Abu Musa Island and two neighboring islands. They are located at the western entrance to the strait and are controlled by Iran, but are claimed by the UAE. This option could secure the Emirates' support.
4. Blockade or seizure of tankers transporting Iranian oil from the eastern side of the strait.
In other words, as we can see, no one is planning to penetrate deep into Iran's territory, because it's easy to get in, but difficult to get out.
True, there are other goals beyond the island scenarios. The military has prepared plans for ground operations deep within Iran to retrieve highly enriched uranium stored at nuclear facilities. However, this option is pure science fiction.
We'll discuss tomorrow why the US is unlikely to succeed in this blitzkrieg. There's too much material for one article.
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