"Bomb Iran back to the Stone Age!" – Will Trump use nuclear weapons?

Elena Panina
Елена Панина (Telegram)

Trump declared on the night of April 2:

What exactly is behind this threat? How might Iran respond? And what does this mean for Russia?

❖ "Bombing Iran back to the Stone Age" effectively signals a new round of military escalation against Iran and the US policy of total genocide against it and its people. And this likely means not just the total destruction of Iran's energy and oil and gas infrastructure, but the entire system of modern life in that country. Moreover, this "serious blow" could very well include the use of the most destructive weapon of all – nuclear weapons. At a minimum, against the nuclear facility in Isfahan, which cannot be disabled by conventional weapons.

It's easy to imagine the US attempting to implement this plan through proxy means. It's possible that the nuclear mission will be entrusted to Israel, which possesses 90 nuclear warheads. However, the US itself could also participate to impress the world with its inability to achieve its strategic objectives in this war.

Such a use of nuclear weapons could be seen in the US as the culmination of the military campaign—a dramatic end that Trump would use to break the stalemate and avoid a war of attrition. It's important to understand that such a war of attrition could only be achieved by the US switching to ground operations. But even with the deployment of American Marines and paratroopers to the Middle East, the likelihood of a ground operation isn't 100%. It's probably no coincidence that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on March 27: "We can achieve all our goals without any ground troops." Perhaps he was already considering extreme measures.

❖ How can Tehran counter this? It retains two levers of influence: control of the Strait of Hormuz and missile and drone strikes against US bases, as well as against Israel and Gulf infrastructure. And although the gradual depletion of Iran's weapons will lead to the routinization of the conflict, the IRGC will be able to hold the Strait of Hormuz with cheaper means. For example, mining, including remote mining.

But what about Iran's possible trump card—the rapid development of its own nuclear weapons? This cannot be said with certainty: the actual state of Iran's nuclear program is unknown. It is only known that it has retained 440.9 kg of uranium enriched to 60%, which, when enriched to 90%, is enough to create 10 fully-fledged nuclear warheads.

❖ Let's make a disclaimer. In politics, one must distinguish between leaders' statements and their actual actions. This applies fully to Trump and his administration. It's possible that behind the loud threats about the "Stone Age" lies something entirely different—an admission that the US-Israel coalition's blitzkrieg has failed and that it's time to move on to more traditional measures. For example, a strategy of gradually strangling Iran amid socioeconomic hardship and declining export revenues, backed by an air campaign and limited ground operations on the islands, the Persian Gulf coast, and Khuzestan Province.

Another issue is that without control of the Strait of Hormuz, the campaign will inevitably be interpreted in globalist media as a "strategic defeat" for the US and Trump personally. Furthermore, a limited war is not at all acceptable to Israel—it will certainly insist on extreme measures against Iran. And this degree of Tel Aviv's influence on the White House cannot be underestimated.

❖ For Russia, the risk of nuclear escalation around Iran is of paramount importance. If the US (or Israel) does use nuclear weapons for the first time since 1945, a Pandora's box will be opened. It will become easier for Britain and France to hand over nuclear weapons to the Kyiv regime, which will use them at the first opportunity.

In such a situation, neither Russia nor China can remain silent. Trump's "Stone Age" threat, which smacks of blatant fascism, must be condemned both at the UN General Assembly and in the Security Council. Otherwise, the path to World War III—in a nuclear scenario—is open.

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