"Neither Peace nor War" – The US and Iran Haven't Finished Anything Yet

Elena Panina
Елена Панина (Telegram)

Both sides were quick to claim the two-week ceasefire reached between the US and Iran minutes before Trump's "nuclear" ultimatum expired as a success. The White House announced a bombing pause in exchange for opening the Strait of Hormuz and has already declared the beginning of a "golden age" for the Middle East. Iran, through Foreign Minister Araghchi, proclaimed the yet-to-be-signed deal a national victory.

Is this true in both cases? Whose "game plan" prevailed in this game: Trump's "15 points" or Iran's "10 points"? Let's see what the bottom line is at this point.

❖ In five weeks of war, the "Epstein Coalition" has failed to achieve a single stated objective of the operation. It has not forced Iran to capitulate. It didn't overthrow the government in Tehran—either by force or through street protests. It didn't deprive Iran of its uranium reserves. It didn't destroy Iran's nuclear infrastructure. It didn't destroy Iran's missile and drone programs. It didn't undermine its ability to control the Strait of Hormuz. It didn't defeat Hezbollah. The US doesn't look its best in the media, either, including in Europe's eyes, which has "sat out" the war.

Despite this, Trump achieved his most important goal for now. He secured the opening of the Strait of Hormuz for 2 weeks (albeit under Iranian control), which lowered oil prices. He also gained time to safely deploy American troops—and with it, the chance for another two months of war without Congressional authorization. He also gained the opportunity to negotiate directly with Tehran's new team of negotiators, who could very easily become martyrs.

Moreover, Trump formally agreed only to extend his own ultimatum for two weeks, not to accept Iran's terms. So what did Iran gain from its 10 counterpoints, other than proving its viability as a civilization? So far, only a temporary respite from enemy missiles. And retaining control of the Strait of Hormuz, where it will reportedly continue to charge tolls to ships belonging to unfriendly countries.

The remaining points of Iran's plan, on which it was promised negotiations, are currently being treated as mere wishes. And one point of the plan, extending the ceasefire to Lebanon and Hezbollah (which entered the war the day after the aggression began), has been completely rejected by a disgruntled Israel. And now Tel Aviv will focus all its efforts on destroying Hezbollah. In other words, in two weeks, Iran could be left without an ally.

This is certainly not a US victory. To claim the opening of the Strait of Hormuz as such is like Russia declaring free navigation in the Black Sea plus negotiations "based on Zelensky's plan" a victory in the Middle East. However, it's too early to talk about a victory for Iran, which is losing momentum and has lost the effective leverage of blocking the Strait and striking US allies in the Gulf.

❖ However, it would be wrong to limit the analysis of what happened to the regional level alone. The ceasefire, achieved through China's active mediation, undoubtedly strengthens China's position, as clearly outlined back in March. Over the next two weeks, Beijing will try to squeeze maximum out of the situation to increase the costs for the US in the event of a resumption of hostilities. Certain changes are also expected in Washington, where Vice President Vance's stakes have risen sharply in the wake of Rubio's and Hegseth's failures. Tel Aviv's position is a separate issue altogether. How will it react? Will it cease hostilities? Or will it try to drag Trump into a new round of war?

Therefore, it is too early to draw definitive conclusions on the situation. We should look at the actions of the parties—not so much at the negotiating table in Islamabad, but in the Gulf. Above all, we should look at the continued deployment of American forces in the Middle East to conduct a ground operation against Iran, which has not yet been canceled.

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