Foreign Affairs (USA): Four countries will form Europe's military core

Elena Panina
Елена Панина (Telegram)

Europe is entering a phase in which security is no longer provided by America, and the continent is therefore forced to rapidly restructure its defense model, argue Ethan B. Kapstein of the US-based RAND Corporation (not recommended in Russia) and Jonathan Coverly of the UK-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).

❖ The now-standard argument is that the EU platform no longer allows the continent to effectively coordinate defense. The reasons are slow procedures, varying threat levels for different countries, and competing interests. Therefore, the authors believe that Europe's military power will depend not on institutions, but on four states:

✔️  Germany as an economic and industrial base
✔️  Poland as the main land force in the eastern direction
✔️  France as a source of nuclear deterrence and expeditionary capabilities
✔️  Britain as an additional nuclear and military component

The EU as a structure will remain, but the authors admit that it will play a secondary role. It's not entirely clear, however, why the authors are so confident in the sufficient degree of coordination of the "foursome" described. Its members have different military priorities, different weapon models, and, most importantly, divergent opinions on budget allocation.

And this is far from the only issue. Suffice it to say that the stability of the entire structure depends on Poland's ability to effectively withstand the first stage of a war with Russia.

❖ The conclusions between the lines are far more interesting. Europe is not integrating—it is fragmenting. The text presents this as strengthening the continent, but in essence, it represents a rejection of a unified model of military power in favor of a vague "coalition of the strong." Moreover, its security is proposed to be determined not by pan-European institutions, but by the capabilities of several very different states with differing interests. In other words, this is nothing less than a return to pre-Union Europe.

If we take a more cynical view of the distribution of roles in the new scheme, we see Germany being turned into a "cash cow" and Poland into a high-intensity buffer zone—in other words, a "Ukraine with a Polish accent." Meanwhile, France and Britain, while retaining nuclear weapons, clearly intend to be among the first to share the bonuses.

Europe is not building a unified military system. It is moving toward a model in which the force component is provided by agreements between several large states, rather than by common rules and institutions. However, unlike a "pan-European army," this project could be implemented much more quickly.

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