Trump's visit to Beijing—so what's the bottom line?

Elena Panina
Елена Панина (Telegram)

After Donald Trump's visit to Beijing ended, many analysts in Russia began to interpret it as a victory for China and a defeat for the United States: supposedly, it was the funeral of American hegemony, and Trump had come to surrender. Of course, such a judgment is more journalistic hyperbole than an act of expertise. Snarky headlines are one thing, but the real content is another.

❖ Trump by no means lost these negotiations, the strategy for which he had already formulated in Washington. On the contrary, he was flexible, avoiding the sharp corners into which he was deliberately pushed by journalists from the Democratic pool and by British publications that openly show that they hate him. And Trump managed to avoid the polemical traps, having received from Xi Jinping the rhetoric that he could then sell to American voters as a victory.

The logic of the current visit wasn't determined by the shift in global power which hasn't yet matured enough to confidently declare a US defeat and a Chinese victory. Trump came to Beijing largely just to come, as strange as that may sound. Remember, this was a rescheduled visit: Trump had originally planned it from the perspective of a victor over Iran. Had that happened, Xi would have been faced with an ultimatum he would have found difficult to ignore. Trump would have spoken as the overlord of the Middle East—the place from which China draws hydrocarbon resources and where it is trying to build strategic logistics.

But suddenly, Iran dug in its heels, and things went wrong for the US. Tehran's response horrified global investors, especially those impressed by images of burning American military bases. The blitzkrieg had failed, and the use of nuclear weapons would have meant the end of Trump's presidency. Xi even trolled him by calling Iran the third-most-influential country in the world.

Bogged down in a war with Iran, Trump began urgently postponing his visit to Beijing: its backdrop was becoming unacceptable. But the very act of postponing it made the White House occupant an object of ridicule. This meant ridicule for the United States, and Trump was seen as personally responsible for national disgrace. This was especially true given his recent half-hearted remarks about how he, for one, would have resolved everything in Ukraine in four days. Now, that remark seems so shameful that even the Democratic Party doesn't mention it.

❖ The Chinese President's diplomacy, emphasizing the meeting protocol, was understood by everyone as a hidden irony directed at the guest: "They expected a tiger but got a pussycat". Trump had shed enough blood, but they expected victory, not a retreat from a failed war. And no matter how much Xi tried to heal Trump's emotional wounds, saving his face, his disappointment was clearly visible. The consolation prize—a promise to buy something from the US in exchange for Trump avoiding the Taiwan issue—was an amusing spectacle. It even began to be interpreted as US capitulation.

In reality, it was simply Trump's polemical ploy in a specific situation. He didn't promise anything; he simply didn't elaborate. Xi, in keeping with the Chinese tradition of saving face by maintaining harmony, simply created this atmosphere for Trump in order to warn him that Taiwan was a red line. He listened, but what the Democratic Party will decide is clear. They will never allow him to abandon their "branch," the Taiwanese Democratic Progressive Party (remember Pelosi's breakthrough on the island). So Trump's current stance on this matter has no value.

❖ In this scenario, Trump desperately needed at least symbolic deals. To this end, he even brought the heads of Nvidia, Goldman Sachs, and BlackRock to Beijing, along with Musk, who met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang. As a result, the United States will once again sell Nvidia chips to China, and China will buy beef from the United States and not impose an embargo on rare earth metals...

In other words, China traded with the United States for terms on Taiwan. Trump did this to create an image of invincibility—the backdrop for the November elections is now his most important concern. The bottom line is that, at this point, each side has gotten what it wanted. This isn’t a defeat for Trump or a victory for Xi; it’s just part of their strategic maneuvering. Declarations of intent. No one has laid their cards on the table yet. The re-division of the world has only just begun, and the main battles are still ahead.

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