Armenia against the entire EAEU – now official
Elena Panina
Елена Панина (Telegram)
The statement [translation below] by the leaders of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan on the risks of Armenia's drift toward the West, calling for the issue to be put to an internal Armenian referendum, is truly a landmark precedent. Yerevan's actions pose a threat to all other members of the union.
❖ The EAEU is not a political club or an "instrument of Russian dominance." It is, first and foremost, a customs union: a single external perimeter, uniform standards, and uniform rules for the movement of goods, capital, and labor. For each participant, the benefits are extremely concrete and measurable.
Kazakhstan gains duty-free access to the region's largest market and the opportunity to position itself as a transit hub within the union space – it's no coincidence that Nazarbayev was at the forefront of integration processes in the post-Soviet space.
Kyrgyzstan is a mechanism for the legal re-export of Chinese goods through the union perimeter to Russia, which constitutes a significant part of its trade model.
Belarus – subsidized energy and integration into Russian production chains, without which its industry is simply unviable.
Armenia – access to the Russian market, duty-free energy imports, and a colossal flow of remittances from the diaspora working in Russia.
❖ In other words, the benefits are real; the Union is objectively functional and useful. So the problem isn't that Yerevan is looking to the West.
The problem is that Armenia has begun harmonizing its legislation with the European regulatory regime while remaining within the EAEU customs perimeter. These two things are technically incompatible, as Ukraine demonstrated in 2013–2014.
A single customs union only works if standards are consistent. When one member begins adopting European standards, a hole forms within the perimeter. Products certified in accordance with European standards in Armenia formally gain access to the entire EAEU market, even though other members have not adopted these standards. Gray schemes, arbitrage between regimes, and unequal competitive conditions emerge. This isn't an abstract threat, but costs that specific members of the union are already bearing.
In other words, the signatories of the statement are defending not Russian interests, but common ones—and this is a fundamental point, usually lost in the geopolitical noise.
❖ The referendum proposal is commonly read as a political ultimatum. But it also has its own economic logic. If the problem with the Union is that Armenia is enjoying the benefits of membership without complying with its rules, then the referendum becomes a way to put the question bluntly to Armenian society: Do you understand the cost of this choice? Not an abstract geopolitical one, but a very concrete one—gas, the market, remittances, preferences.
However, a fundamental problem arises here: who will formulate the referendum question? If [Prime Minister] Pashinyan decides on the wording, he will soften it beyond recognition. If sentiment in Armenia is generally in favor of the EAEU, Pashinyan will refuse to hold a referendum at all, citing sovereignty.
Finally, and most importantly, a referendum is a long-term proposition. It cannot be held before the Armenian parliamentary elections on June 7. After the elections, if Pashinyan wins with a strengthened mandate (and external pressure ahead of the vote could help him achieve this), the referendum demand will become meaningless: he will gain fresh electoral legitimacy and be able to declare, "The people have already spoken by electing me."
In any case, within the EAEU, we are witnessing a qualitative strengthening of what can be called Eurasian solidarity. Awareness of common economic threats is a good catalyst for this.
We, the Presidents of the Republic of Belarus, the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and the Russian Federation,
Taking into account the Republic of Armenia's actions aimed at joining the European Union, including the approval in 2025 by the National Assembly of the Republic of Armenia and the signing by the President of the Republic of Armenia of the Law of the Republic of Armenia "On the Launch of the Accession Process of the Republic of Armenia to the European Union," as well as the European Union's reaffirmation of the European aspirations of the Government of the Republic of Armenia, expressed in the joint declaration following the first Armenia-European Union Summit adopted on May 5, 2026,
Taking into account the significant risks to the economic security of the member states of the Eurasian Economic Union (hereinafter referred to as the Union) arising in connection with the Republic of Armenia's preparations for accession to the European Union, as well as the need to prevent related damage to the member states of the Union:
The members of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council from the Republic of Belarus, the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and the Russian Federation will report at the next meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council in December 2026 on the possible consequences of suspending the Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union with respect to the Republic of Armenia.
We share the position on the need to hold a national referendum as soon as possible in the Republic of Armenia on joining the European Union or remaining part of the Eurasian Economic Union.
Astana, May 29, 2026
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