So, has Iran won yet?
Elena Panina
Елена Панина (Telegram)
On June 12, the Iranian news outlet Mehr News published a memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran:
1. A permanent and immediate cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon.
2. A commitment by the US not to interfere in Iran's internal affairs and to respect the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
3. A complete lifting of the naval blockade within 30 days.
4. A commitment by the US to withdraw its troops from areas surrounding Iran.
5. Reopening the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days in accordance with the Iranian agreements.
6. Suspension of sanctions on the sale of oil, petrochemical products, and derivatives, as well as full access for Iran to its financial resources.
7. The United States and its allies are required to present reconstruction plans for Iran worth at least $300 billion.
8. 60 days of negotiations to reach a final agreement on nuclear issues and the complete lifting of US primary and secondary sanctions, as well as UN Security Council and IAEA Board of Governors resolutions.
9. Reaffirm Iran's commitment under the NPT not to produce nuclear weapons.
10. The United States commits not to build up forces in the region or impose new sanctions during the negotiating period.
11. Release $24 billion in frozen Iranian funds during the 60-day final negotiating period. Half of this amount must be released to Iran before the start of negotiations.
12. Formation of a supervisory mechanism for the implementation of the agreement.
13. The final agreement will be approved by a UN Security Council resolution.
14. Final negotiations will not begin until half of Iran's frozen assets are released, sanctions on Iranian oil are suspended, and the naval blockade is lifted. The final agreement will only cover the fate of enriched materials and enrichment, the lifting of sanctions, and a plan for Iran's economic reconstruction.
Discussions of Iran's missile program and support for resistance groups are completely off the agenda.
❖ Many rushed to label the US and Israel as losers and attribute the victory in the war to Iran. But this is not true. Trump immediately responded:
US Vice President Vance also spoke. He suggested not judging the Iran deal based on unconfirmed media reports or believing anonymous posts on social media. He emphasized that "the Iranians are not receiving any cash, and no funds are being allocated simply to sign a deal or attend a meeting." He added that the deal is structured to ensure "the priority of the interests of the United States and its allies." And if Iran fulfills its obligations, economic benefits will accrue both to it and to the entire region.
❖ Clearly, the United States will never sign the aforementioned 14-point document. This is unacceptable for a global hegemon, as it would have to say goodbye to its status as a hegemon immediately. This list merely reflects Iran's vision of a settlement—its negotiating position.
Israel, however, stuck to its guns. In a recent phone call, Netanyahu reminded Trump of his promise to press Iran to completely dismantle all nuclear facilities, remove enriched uranium, curtail its missile program, and abandon support for its allies in the region. On June 12, the Israeli prime minister also stated that Israel is not a subordinate, but an ally of the United States.
Let's not forget: Tel Aviv has its own leverage to disrupt any agreement between the US and Iran. It would be enough to launch massive strikes on the Dahiya district of Beirut. Let's not underestimate Israel's ability to escalate the situation.
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