War On Iran: – Israel, And Trump Himself, Are Hindering Conflict Solution
Moon of Alabama
Moon of Alabama (Blog)
The talks between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran, as agreed upon in their Memorandum of Understanding, are veering off course.
There are two major forces that are threatening to derail the agreement.
One is, very predictably, Israel, which does its best to sabotage the talks. The MoU emphasizes the end of fighting in Lebanon and the retreat of Israeli forces from Lebanese ground.
While Israel, after pressure from the U.S., had stopped fighting over the weekend, its officials have stated that there will be no retreat of their forces. Today, Israeli troops attacked Lebanese civilians who were clearing a road in Nabatieh. It then attacked the civil defense forces, which tried to help those wounded during the first strike.
The U.S., Iran, and the Qatari and Pakistani mediators had agreed over the weekend to install an observer group to prevent such incidents. Iran will demand that the U.S. intervene in the case. It will otherwise take its own measures, which may again block the Strait of Hormuz.
The second force that is disrupting the talks is the U.S. itself. The first clause of the MoU obligates both sides to refrain from threatening each other. While the talks on Saturday/Sunday were ongoing, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to kill the Iranian negotiators. This was, of course, bollocks but had to be taken seriously. The direct talks between the U.S. and Iranian delegations were immediately stopped. Less effective, indirect talks with the help of mediators from Qatar and Pakistan continued.
The Iranian side said the U.S. had agreed to release Iranian funds held under sanctions. The U.S. also lifted sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil for 60 days. Both measures are mere openers – preconditions by Iran – for any further talk.
Now the U.S., through the president and Vice President Vance, makes claims that Iran had agreed to use the unfrozen money to buy U.S. agricultural products. They also claimed that Iran would invite the IAEA to inspect all of its nuclear programs.
Iran has rejected both points. The MoU states that Iran will be free to use its released money however it likes. It also states that no talks or agreements on nuclear issues will take place before other conditions have been fulfilled.
The U.S. is thus falsely claiming points that directly contradict the agreement it itself signed on to.
Currently, the Strait of Hormuz is open to traffic which complies with the directives Iran has issued for peaceful passage. The majority of ships that have passed over the last two days were Iranian tankers carrying Iranian oil bound for China. Little of other products has left the Persian Gulf, as shipowners and insurers will not risk passage unless they are sure there will be no further hostilities.
With no fresh product in reasonable quantities coming from other Gulf states besides Iran, the squeeze in the oil and liquefied gas markets continues. There are three to six weeks left before global reserves run dry and markets are disrupted with serious consequences.
The clock is ticking for Donald Trump. He will have to rein in Israel. He will also have to stop himself from making threats and overbearing claims of U.S. successes with regard to Iran. He needs to do this immediately. Otherwise, the U.S. and the global economy will suffer what Trump himself had called a catastrophe.
Iran, meanwhile, has all the time it needs to improve its global position. The speaker of parliament has visited Oman to work on a common regulation for the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian president is visiting Pakistan. The foreign minister is on his way to China. Iran is setting the diplomatic stage for its new dominant role in the Middle East.
Everyone watching the conflict has recognized that the U.S. has lost the war. Trump’s attempts to sell it as a victory are endangering the MoU and a peaceful solution. In a week or so, he may even try new escalations.
But with any new hostilities, he will end up in a worse situation.
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