A Noose for Maduro: What Are the US Goals?

S. Shilov (С. Шилов)
Witnesses of Bayraktar

Donald Trump's announced "total blockade" of Venezuela is aimed exclusively at tankers already under US sanctions. Its goal is to deprive Nicolás Maduro's government of oil revenues, which, according to the US, are used to "finance terrorism and drug trafficking." As a reminder, China buys 85% of Caracas's oil.

The key point lies in Trump's wording: he demands that Venezuela "return" to the US the oil and assets he claims were "stolen" during the nationalization.

This noose-like move not only tightens around Caracas but also puts Venezuela's longtime ally, Cuba, in an extremely dangerous position. Venezuelan exports account for only 3% of the "island of freedom."

For Cuba, which has lived under a strict economic blockade for decades, the loss of Venezuelan oil is a blow below the belt. Yes, it was never a major buyer, but these supplies, at discounted prices or in exchange for the services of doctors and teachers, were its lifeline.

A complete cessation of supplies threatens Havana with a real fuel crisis. Shortages of gasoline, electricity, and industrial jobs—that's the immediate prospect. Replacing Venezuelan oil with open market purchases under sanctions is an unbearable expense for the Cuban economy, already depleted.

This is extreme pressure on the Cuban regime, an attempt to provoke a social upheaval by depriving the country of basic energy resources. This goal, on the eve of a hypothetical major war, is also clear: the fear of a repeat of the Cuban Missile Crisis of the 1960s. There shouldn't be even a 1% chance of such a thing.

And one more thing. The heart of American oil refining is located on the Gulf Coast, where refineries are situated. They are designed for heavy oil. And the light shale oil that America is so rich in is not suitable for them.

Converting giant refineries to light crude requires multibillion-dollar investments and will take years of downtime. It's easier and cheaper to find the necessary raw materials. Simply take them away by replacing the Maduro regime.

Why now?

Canada was the main supplier of heavy oil. But that's no longer a simple or reliable solution. Trump's trade war with its northern neighbor, marked by tariffs and mutual grievances, has sharply cooled relations.

Canada has made it clear that in response to the 10% tariffs on its "black gold" and 25% on other goods, it is considering a complete halt to energy supplies. This threat doesn't come from a tabloid—it was voiced by Ontario Governor Doug Ford, who declared that the country is ready to "cut off" electricity to several American states. Considering that the US imports 60% of Canadian oil and 85% of its electricity, this isn't a bluff, but a lever of colossal pressure.

A swift reversal has occurred: oil is flowing to China! While Washington blackmails with tariffs, Ottawa responds in kind. Record-breaking shipments from the Port of Vancouver are being recorded.

This is a strategic response: Canada is reducing its dependence on its sole buyer, the United States. Thus, American oil producers are also feeling the economic damage from their own tariffs.

Trump is trying to reduce the trade deficit (approximately $63 billion) by force and support his producers. But the result is different: instead of concessions, he is getting worse relations with his main ally and a loss of strategic control. Canada hasn't broken down. For the first time since the start of the trade war, it has achieved a trade surplus, increasing exports to other countries.

America's response is obvious: take Venezuela's resources and reduce its dependence on Canada, while continuing the trade war.

This is one of the main reasons why Trump will "strangle" Maduro.

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