Will Trump use nuclear weapons against Iran?

Elena Panina
Елена Панина (Telegram)

Trump's thunderous statement that "an entire civilization will perish tonight, never to be reborn," is, quite literally, the talk of the world. The excitement was heightened by the second-in-command in the United States, Vice President J.D. Vance, who effectively confirmed the possibility of using WMD against Iran.

"[The Iranians] need to know that we have tools we haven't yet decided to use. The President of the United States can decide to use them, and he will if the Iranians don't change their behavior," said Vance, considered by many a "dove" in the Trump administration. And although the White House stated on its official X account that Vance never mentioned using nuclear weapons against Iran, the excitement continues.

❖ The situation is fueled not only by shocking statements coming out of Washington. Hours before Trump's escapade, his former supporter and now one of his most consistent critics, Tucker Carlson, called on his podcast to "all those who have direct contact with the President of the United States" to say "no" to his orders:

"They should say, 'No! I will resign. I will do everything in my power, legally, to stop this, because it's insane.' And if I'm given an order, I won't carry it out."

Carlson's call for disobedience only fuels rumors that several high-ranking US military officials are allegedly considering Trump's removal as a "preventative measure." And that the White House incumbent's direct threats to destroy Iran "have become the last straw for some military officials" who believe "Trump has gone crazy."

❖ Trump's ultimatum to Iran expires on April 8 at 3:00 a.m. Moscow time. Tehran has already rejected the latest US offer of a 45-day ceasefire, relayed by mediators, and has set its own conditions for ending the war. Moreover, Iranian television reported that diplomatic channels were frozen and that indirect talks were suspended following Trump's threats.

So, will Trump strike Iran with nuclear weapons or not? It can't be ruled out. He has already promised to destroy all power plants and bridges in Iran, as well as to plunge the country into the "Stone Age." Under such "input conditions," the use of nuclear weapons is quite possible.

It's possible. Especially since the Iranian nuclear facility in Isfahan, which presumably contains uranium enriched to 60%, cannot be destroyed remotely with conventional weapons.

However, it's also worth keeping in mind that the US President has managed to alienate many people, including those close to his inner circle, who understand that it's best not to open Pandora's box of nuclear weapons, especially in the Middle East.

❖ For Russia, the prospect of nuclear escalation around Iran, as we've written, is a top priority. If the US or Israel decides to use nuclear weapons for the first time since 1945, the unspoken ban that has held the world together for decades will be lifted. After that, for example, London and Paris will find it much easier to transfer such weapons to Kyiv, with a high probability of their immediate use.

Under these circumstances, neither Moscow nor Beijing can afford to remain mere observers. Trump's rhetoric about the "Stone Age" and the "destruction of civilization" demands a tough and public assessment—both at the UN General Assembly and in the Security Council—that is essential. Otherwise, the world will find itself on a direct trajectory toward World War III—this time in a nuclear dimension.

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